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General Michael Flynn, 56, America’s highest ranking military intelligence officer as the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, has just dropped a bombshell.

Flynn served as the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, commander of the Joint Functional Component Command for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, and chair of the Military Intelligence Board from July 24, 2012, to August 2, 2014. Prior to this, he served as assistant director of national intelligence within the Obama Administration.

Since his days within the US government ended in 2014, Flynn has begun to speak out about the murderous and unjust Iraq war and how it has led to the rise of ISIS.

In an interview with Spiegel this week, Flynn made some eye-opening revelations when he confirmed what many of us, outside of the state, already knew — the United State’s foreign policy helped create and foster the growth of terrorism worldwide.

Matthias Gebauer and Holger Stark held no punches when they grilled the retired general during their interview.

In 2004, the US had captured the man who would become the Islamic State’s leader, the self-proclaimed Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. However, unlike many of the innocent young men still being held in US torture facilities, al-Baghdadi was set free.



S&P 500 Update

In early September, we noted the likely end of this current bull market in stocks by the appearance of a “death candle” on the monthly chart. In early October, we anticipated a rally that would be marked by a “green candle of hope”. And now it’s early December. What do you suppose comes next?

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An Experienced Pilot Explains “Stall Speed”

The Airplane Aerodynamic Stall Explained

In the aftermath of the downing by Turkish F-16 fighter jets of the Russian Sukhoi tactical bomber Su-24 over Syria, some have pointed out that Turkish claims the Russian jet was in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds, but covered a distance of only 1.15 miles, would imply the Russian jet would have had to be flying at only 243 mph, which some say would be slower than the airplane’s stall speed and therefore impossible.

Others dispute this stall speed figure and say an airplane of this type would have a stall speed closer to 150 mph. Who is right, and how can we find some objective answers? We can and we will.

The most important point is that there is no such thing as a single stall speed for any airplane, as Dr. Roberts pointed out. In fact wing stall is not a function of airspeed, but of the wing’s angle of incidence to the oncoming airflow, which is called the angle of attack (AoA) or simply alpha (this angle is obviously a function of the airplane’s “attitude” or pitch-up angle).

If wing angle of attack exceeds the critical point, the airflow starts to separate from the top surface of the wing (the suction side), and the wing will begin to lose lift and a stall recovery maneuver is required.

The stalling angle of most airplanes is on the order of 15 to 18 degrees of angle of attack, although some combat aircraft have special design features, such as leading edge root extensions (or LERX) that may increase critical AoA to about 30 degrees. Engine power plays a big role too—a fighter aircraft with very powerful engines and low airplane weight can sustain high angles of attack by using its engine power to overcome the loss of lift due to wing stall.

It is also useful to know that wing lift increases nearly linearly with an increase in the angle of attack. So if we want to double lift, we must double the angle of attack.

For example when taking off, the pilot will pull back on the control yoke and increase the pitch-up angle of the airplane, thus increasing angle of attack and thereby total wing lift. The extra lift launches the airplane into the air!

This maneuver is called takeoff “rotation” which refers to the pilot in effect rotating the aircraft about its pitch axis (which can be thought to run horizontally from wingtip to wingtip).

It is an old truism that every student pilot is taught early on, that any airplane will stall at any speed, at any attitude, and any bank angle. So when we say that an airplane has a certain stall speed, it is simplifying things to the point of uselessness.

As Dr. Roberts pointed out, an airplane that is maneuvering can have a higher stall speed than if it is simply flying straight and level. When an airplane is in a banked turn the lift created by the wing is also tilted, since lift is always perpendicular to the wing. If the airplane is banked at 45 degrees, it means its lift vector will be pointing 45 degrees from the vertical (or horizontal if you prefer), as seen in the figure below.

The wing’s lift in a bank decreases by the cosine of the bank angle. If the airplane is banked 45 degrees, the cosine is 0.707 and the amount of vertical lift is only about 70 percent of the total lift that is now pointing at 45 degrees.

In order to maintain the airplane’s altitude in a turn, the pilot must then pull back on the yoke and increase the angle of attack, so as to increase diagonal lift and thereby provide enough vertical lift component to maintain the aircraft at the same altitude. That vertical lift component is shown in the diagram.

Vertical Lift

It should be noted that the airplane loses lift exponentially with increasing bank angle. In a 60 degree bank the cosine is 0.5, (which is 0.707squared). At this bank angle the vertical lift component is now only half of the total diagonal lift, and the airplane now needs double the lift it would normally need at straight and level flight. Again the pilot has to pull back the yoke and increase airplane pitch attitude to an angle of attack about double what it would be in straight and level flight.

In a 75 degree bank the cosine is 0.26 which means the airplane now needs almost four times as much lift. Pitching the airplane into such an attitude could well exceed the critical angle of attack and bring about wing stall—which could be dangerous at such a steep bank angle.

Now it should be noted that all the above examples of airplane bank are assumed for a level turn, where the aircraft stays at the same altitude. This is the “standard” turn maneuver. If the airplane were to simultaneously bank and descend, there need not be any loss of lift (depending on bank angle and rate of descent), although the pilot must now be careful that the descending airplane does not overspeed, or enter a dangerous spiral dive.

Another technical point worth noting in turning maneuvers is that (in a level turn), the airplane (and pilot) weight increases due to centrifugal force, just as you may remember as a child on those spin rides, where you felt heavy and unable to move your arms or legs.

In a level turn the g loading is simply the inverse of our above bank-to-lift relation—ie. g = 1 / cosine bank angle.

If the bank angle is 45 degrees the cosine is 0.7 and the g-loading is therefore 1 / 0.7 = 1.41. In other words, if the pilot weighs 100 pounds, she would now feel as if she weighed 141 lb. The aircraft’s effective weight would be 1.41 times greater.

In a 60 degree turn g-loading is 2, so the plane and pilot’s weight is effectively doubled. In a 75 degree turn the g-loading is 3.9, which means that 100 lb pilot would feel like she weighs 390 lb, and the airplane is nearly four times as heavy (at least as far as the unforgiving force of gravity is concerned). Again, this kind of steep bank angle would likely result in a wing stall.

Another important point to consider is altitude, which determines the air density. The higher the altitude, the lower the density (due to less air pushing down from above) and the higher the stall speed.

Let’s first consider the “standard” published stall speed, Vs, which is typically given for landing and takeoff conditions at sea level standard day conditions, which means 15 C (59 F) and atmospheric pressure of 101.3 kilopascals or 29.92 inches of mercury.

At high altitude and thinner air, the stall speed can approach or even surpass the airplane cruise speed! A friend has flown hundreds of USAF missions in the Lockheed U2 reconnaissance airplane, considered the highest-flying jet in the world. The aircraft’s cruise speed in that thin air at over 65,000 feet altitude is only several mph above its stall speed, requiring constant pilot attention to keep the aircraft in its very narrow safe operating speed range.

That is because the air molecules are so few and far between that the pilot must fly at a high angle of attack just to keep aloft. If he loses his concentration and the speed drops only slightly, the airplane wing will stall, and a recovery under those conditions might be very difficult.

In pilot circles this flight regime is known as the coffin corner. There have been a number of deadly crashes of high performance aircraft at high altitudes, prompting the FAA to issue an advisory on high altitude flight.

Now there is a mathematical formula that relates stall speed and air density:

Stall Speed = the square root of wing loading (which is the aircraft’s weight divided by its wing surface area), times 2, divided by air density, and divided again by the wing’s maximum lift coefficient. In mathematical terms the formula looks like this:

Vstall = sqrt( (W/S) * 2 / rho / CLmax)

Where W/S is the wing loading (or airplane Weight divided by wing Surface), rho is the air density and CLmax is the maximum lift coefficient.

So we can see just by looking at that relation that the lower the air density, the higher the stall speed will be.

Published data on the Su-24 stall speed is difficult to find, but we can make an educated guess using a typical estimate of maximum lift coefficient for combat aircraft that ranges between 1.2 and 1.8—in the so-called clean configuration, ie. no high lift devices like landing flaps extended. In normal flight the aircraft would be flying clean to reduce drag, but might deploy flaps in a tight turn to increase its lift and help prevent stall.

If we assume the CLmax is between those given values, say 1.5, then we can work out the rest since we know the airplane’s wing loading is 133 lb / ft ^2 (wikipedia) and we know the airplane was flying at about 6,000 meters altitude, about 19,700 ft. At this altitude air density is only about half of what it is at sea level: in metric the air density on a “standard” day at that altitude would be about 0.66 kg per cubic meter, or in English units, 0.00128 slugs per cubic foot, where 1 slug equals 32.2 lb; (32.2 feet per second being the acceleration of gravity on earth).

So if we plug in the numbers we get:

sqrt(133 * 2 / 0.00128 / 1.5) = 372 feet per second.

To convert to mph we multiply by 15 and divide by 22 and get 253 mph as our stall speed at straight and level flight at 6000 meters altitude, about 19,700 ft. Now any turning or banking maneuver would obviously increase stall speed further, so we can think of 253 mph as a minimum flying speed at that altitude for the Su-24 (again assuming standard day conditions).

Now that wing loading assumes a fully loaded aircraft, which probably was not the case. The Sukhoi would likely not have been carrying full fuel of about 11 tons (22,000 lb), although it might have been carrying its complete payload of over 3 tons of ordnance (6,000 lb). However reports of the sortie described the pair of bombers had already made one bombing run, so full ordnance was probably not on board either.

We can take a stab at estimating the operating weight of the aircraft at that time. The Su-24’s empty weight is published as just under 50,000 lb (wikipedia). If we assume half fuel, that would be about 11,000 lb, and if we assume half ordnance load, that would be about 3,000 lb, giving a total aircraft weight of 64.000 lb.

The published wing area is 594 square feet, so the wing loading under this flying condition would be 64,000 / 594 = ~108 lb/ft^2.

If we now plug that into our stalling equation that takes into account the air density, we get:

Vstall = sqrt(108 * 2 / 0.00128 / 1.5) = ~335 fps, which equals ~227 mph.

Again, this is an approximation of the Su-24 stalling speed at part-weight and straight and level flight at 19,700 ft altitude. Any turning maneuver would increase stall speed as described above. Also a warmer than standard temperature at that altitude would lower air density (and increase the effective altitude). This is known as density altitude and all pilots are trained to work only with density altitude, since non-standard meteorological conditions are not uncommon.

Note also that the actual CLmax value of the Su-24 may be something different than our guesstimate; a higher value would decrease the stall speed, but a lower value would increase it. We are making an educated guess. However, this puts us in the ballpark and hopefully sheds some light on the technical issue under dispute.

On a practical level, it is outside the realm of possibility that a bomber aircraft would be flying at the edge of its stall at any time during a sortie, other than hard evasive maneuvers to avoid enemy action. Since the rescued co-pilot reports that they did not even see the missile coming, nor had time to take evasive maneuvers, it can be assumed with strong certainty that the airplane would not have been flying near the stall at any time.

More than likely the aircraft would have been flying in the so-called “transonic” regime where airliners usually operate, which is about 550 to 650 mph.

In light of this brief and inexact analysis, there appears to be reasonable doubt as to the Turkish version of the Sukhoi’s incursion into sovereign airspace under the conditions described.

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Market Talk Nov 30th, 2015 / by Martin Armstrong / 

An extremely dull day for most core equity markets across the globe today with plus or minus 0.5% movements throughout. If anything to write about it was probably that US stocks closed close to the days lows as they all drifted but even that it probably clutching at straws.

Currencies were also quiet today but we did see the DXY (US Dollar Index) climb again (100.28 last seen) but only to close off of its daily high. What the Euro lost was off-set by the GBP and CHF (Swiss). All eyes are still on the ECB and awaiting further stimulus. Even the Swiss Central Bank commented today that they may be forced to take action if the Euro falls upon ECB’s actions. The major news between the FX dealers was the percentage weighting awarded to China in the IMF’s SDR (Special Drawing Rights). They awarded China 10.92% which will obviously be seen within China as a badge of honour. We believe with this inclusion the weightings should now around USD 41.7%; Euro 30.9%; Yuan 10.9%; JPY 8.3% and GBP 8.09%.

The European Bond markets drifted a little today with core and peripherals trading lower (in price higher in yield). The interest rate differential between the US 10yr Bond and the German 10yrBOND TRADED slightly tighter at +173bp. Germany at 0.48% and USA at 2.21%.


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Roadside Bomb Explosion At Istanbul Train Station Kills 1, Injures 6 – Live Feed / by Tyler Durden on 12/01/2015 11:00



Istanbul Bayrampa?a explosion near a metro occurred. Citizens suffered bomb panic. Explosion sound was heard from other districts. Subway service was stopped. The blast was reportedly caused by a car bomb inside.’

One person has been killed and at least six more injured as Turkey’s Haberturk TV reports an explosion occurred at an Istanbul Metro station. The trains have been halted, passengers evacuated, and ambulances are on their way. While the cause is unknown (some are suggesting it was a power transformer), sounds of the explosion were heard across several districts of Istanbul according to local press, and residents of the city remain on high alert following Erdogan’s actions last week.


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Economic Snapshot / MATTHEW KERKHOFF via / 12/01/2015

Last week was shortened due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but there was no shortage of economic data to parse. Let’s check in and see what some of the latest figures are telling us.

Existing home sales continue at a brisk pace. October’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million homes was down 3.4% from September’s pace, which was close to an eight-year high. On a year-over-year basis, home sales are up 3.9%.

We may see downward pressure on the number of homes sales moving forward as a result of tight inventory. During October there were 4.8 months of inventory at the current sales pace. The long-term average is 6 months.

The lack of inventory is continuing to buoy home prices, which are rising nationwide by 5.5% based on the latest Case-Shiller data. Among the 20 major cities tracked, San Francisco, Denver and Portland reported annual price gains in the double digits. Here at home, San Diego home prices are up 6.6% over the last 12 months.

The strong pace of job creation will continue to add more buyers to the pool and is likely to prolong the rise in overall home prices. We’ll see the latest jobs report this coming Friday, but so far jobless claims remain suppressed. Last week’s figure came in near 15 year lows at 260,000.


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The Perfect Economic Storm Is Here – Mike Maloney At Silver Summit 2015

Mike Maloney, Published on Dec 1, 2015

Private Breakout Session link:… Never before in history have all the governments of the world laid down the foundation for the perfect economic storm. And in this just-released presentation from Mike Maloney, you’ll discover why we can not avoid it. It was recorded LIVE at the 2015 Silver Summit. And it’s loaded with new research that proves a financial crisis of epic proportions is headed straight toward us. As you would expect from Mike, it’s all laid out in eye-opening charts everyone can understand. This talk comes on the 10-year anniversary of Mike’s uncanny 2005 Silver Summit appearance where he made several stunningly accurate predictions. They were unpopular at the time but many have already come to pass. Back then, he said the real estate bubble would burst. And it would cause a tsunami of foreclosures transmitting a crisis around the world instantly through derivatives. This was two years BEFORE Ben Bernanke even admitted there was any kind of housing bubble. And it happened. Mike also said stocks would crash. They did 3 years later. And he said that these events would trigger deflation. But that Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, would do everything in his power to prevent that. He said Bernanke would re-inflate stocks, bonds, and real estate with an unprecedented amount of money printing. This also happened. Now, Mike reveals what’s coming next. And it could catch 99% of all investors off guard.

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The Boots Are Back On The Ground: US Officially Deploys Special Forces To Iraq / by Tyler Durden / 12/01/2015 10:28

Just to be clear, everyone who’s been paying attention knows there have been US boots on the ground in Syria and Iraq for quite some time.

When Obama announced last month that Washington would be deploying “less than 50” Spec Ops to Syria, the public’s reaction (as exemplified by the painful presser with White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest) seemed to indicate that everyone had forgotten that just five months ago, US commandos executed a raid in Syria that purportedly killed Islamic State’s “gas minister” (and yes, that’s just as absurd as it sounds). And then there was the Peshmerga-assisted raid on an ISIS prison in the northern Iraqi town of Huwija that resulted in the first US combat death in the country since 2006. Footage from that operation was plastered all over the news in a desperate attempt to prove the US is still serious about fighting terror.

Additionally, Washington has made no secret of the now defunct “train and equip” program for Syrian rebels – clearly, the American public hadn’t thought very hard about who was doing the on-the-ground “training.”

Finally, there’s no telling how many CIA operatives and black ops have been running around in Syria assisting Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s proxy armies from the very beginning.

As Anthony Cordesman, a security and intelligence analyst for past US administrationstold The Guardian, no boots on the ground “doesn’t mean every damn boot.”


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ISM Manufacturing Collapses To Worst Since June 2009 As New Orders, Prices Paid Plunge / by Tyler Durden / 12/01/2015 10:09

While it is hoped that the economy can continue to expand on the back of the “service”sector alone, history suggests that “manufacturing” continues to play a much more important dynamic that it is given credit for… and that is a major problem as ISM Manufacturing just fell below 50 for the first time since Nov 2012, crashing to 48.6 – the weakest since June 2009. Across the components, new orders collapsed (worst since Aug 2012), and prices paid crashed.

When ISM Manufacturing dropped to this level in early 2008, people largely ignored it at first…


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The Fed’s New Bailout Rule Expands Its Powers Rather than Limiting Them

by Pam Martens and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors voted 5-0 to approve a new rule that was required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation to rein in the type of vast, secret, and below-market-rate lending the Fed engaged in during the 2007 to 2010 financial crisis.

But rather than rein in its hubris, the Fed seems to have gone out of its way to emphasize that it has the power to make loans to “persons,” not just financial firms whose illiquidity might pose a threat to the nation’s overall financial stability.

Most Americans understand that the U.S. is experiencing unprecedented wealth inequality and that there are many billionaires in the U.S. whose net worth exceeds that of many regional banks (think Koch brothers or the Walton family behind Walmart). But if individual “persons” should get in a financial bind, is it really the job of the Federal Reserve to put taxpayers at risk with emergency bailouts?

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