by Alasdair Macleod
Almost certainly prices for goods in Cyprus will rise as a result of its banking crisis, because the imposition of capital controls will restrict imports, leading to supply bottlenecks. In addition residents will no longer be complacent about keeping money on deposit, but seek other alternatives. Large depositors may be trapped, but smaller local depositors will draw them down for cash to stock up on things needed tomorrow while they are available.
Cypriots will therefore change their preferences from money in the bank in favour of goods. And the lessons from Cyprus are not being lost on ordinary folk across the eurozone, so bank depositors elsewhere are likely to alter their preferences away from bank deposits as well, depending on how they view the soundness of their own banks.