financialsense.com / By Clif Droke / April 17, 2013
The threat of war against the United States is making headlines and roiling investors’ nerves. While full-scale war is likely not imminent, it’s something worth considering in light of where we stand in the long-term War Cycle.
North Korea has stolen the geopolitical spotlight in recent weeks after making military threats against both the U.S. and South Korea. North Korea is the target of UN sanctions in response to a nuclear weapons test performed by the country in February. In reference to the test a spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry declared the nation has a right to initiate “a preemptive nuclear attack to destroy the strongholds of the aggressors.”
Most recently, North Korea said it had final approval to launch “merciless” military strikes on the U.S. South Korea’s defense minister said North Korea had moved a missile with “considerable range” to its east coast. North Korea recently announced it would cancel all nonaggression pacts with the South, according to the Los Angeles Times.
The obstreperous saber-rattling by North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, seems to have gone beyond the boundaries of idle threats. Are we to fear an outbreak of war involving North and South Korea – and possibly the U.S. – in the near future?
To answer this question we need first to realize where we are in the context of the 24-year cycle. This particular cycle, a subset of the Kress 120-year cycle, has been identified as the long-term “war cycle” among industrialized countries. The most recent 24-year cycle bottom occurred in October 1990. This ended a vicious bear market for the stock market. The banking sector was particularly hard hit by this particular 24-year cycle as 1990 was the worst part of the infamous S&L crisis and saw the failure of more than 100 small banks. The 24-year cycle bottom of 1990 marked the beginning of the great 1990s bull market, which extended until early 2000.
Thanks to BrotherJohnF