Silver as an investment

Oil Pumps’n’Dumps As Algos Fight Over Distillates/Gasoline Inventories Surge & Surprise Crude Draw

Following last week's Hurrican Hermine-inspired collapse in crude inventories (and API's disapponting build), DOE surpreised with another (small) inventory draw (559k barrels). However, machinese were confused as the week saw major builds in Gasoline (most in 2 months) and Distillates (most in 8 months). Crude production rose  (+0.4% WoW) for the first time in 4 weeks further confusing the algos. For now prices are higher post-inventories…

API

  • Crude +1.4mm (+4mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.12mm (-300k exp)
  • Gasoline -2.4mm (-1.1mm exp)
  • Distillates +5.3mm

DOE

  • Crude -559k (+1.44mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.245mm (-300k exp)
  • Gasoline +567k (-1.1mm exp)
  • Distillates +4.6mm

Last week, EIA data showed crude inventories unexpectedly fell 14.5m bbl, 2nd-biggest drop since EIA records began in 1984, after Tropical Storm Hermine battered imports; but API overnight and now DOE data has confused themn even more. The product builds are the most notable…

 

Crude production rose for the first time in 4 weeks…

 

And imports bounced back dramatically after the storm – biggest rise since 2015…

 

As one analyst explained, "considering how wrong it was estimated last week there may be some nervousness" about the actual numbers and judging by the chaotic moves following API, the DOE follow-through wil lbe just as nerve-wracking for the machines… and the crude draw versus product build confused them to start with before the maltup…

 

Prices initially kneejerked higher but the product build and increased production sparked panic-selling once $45 (API) stops had been run…

 

Charts: Bloomberg