A few weeks back, Reuters/Ipsos released a fun, interactive electoral college map that allowed users to model their own expectations of how the 2016 presidential election would play out. Reuters also offered up their own scenario based on their internal polling data from all 50 states. And, as early as August 26, 2016 Reuters was predicting a landslide victory for Clinton.
But, now it’s looking increasingly likely that Reuters will have to “tweak” their polling data again as recent results show a massive Trump surge that have thrust him into the lead.
Here is Reuters’ latest prediction of what the 2016 electoral college map will look like once all the votes are counted. Notice that the entire central portion of the U.S. has turned red (including Colorado and New Mexico) along with Florida and South Carolina in the Southeast. And perhaps even more shocking is that Reuters has been forced to move Pennsylvania out of the Democrat column and into the “Too Close To Call” column.
So, here is a comparison of some of the Reuters polling data by states that have shifted since late august.
Florida has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to marginal Trump.
Pennsylvania has swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to “Too Close To Call.”
Nevada has also swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
South Carolina has swung 8 points toward Trump moving the state from “Too Close To Call” to solid Trump.
Colorado has swung 6 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
And Iowa has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to solid Trump.
New Mexico also moved from “Undecided” to Trump though Reuters didn’t have polling data as of August 26, 2016 for that state.
And let the mainstream media panic continue…