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Hillary’s “Hispanic Problem” – Trump May Be Doing Better With Hispanics Than You Thought

A few days ago we pointed out Hillary’s growing “Millennial Problem” and the fact that young voters were not skewing as heavily toward her as they did toward Obama in 2012.  Then, just two days ago, we also noted a surge in Trump support from black voters in the LA Times tracking poll. 

Now we take a look at Hillary’s support from Hispanic voters in the key swing states.  So far in this election cycle, it has been a foregone conclusion that
Trump would lose ground with Hispanic voters given his relentless calls
for building a border wall.  This has been welcome news for the Hillary camp, which, given lackluster polling support from millennials, is heavily dependent on Hispanic voters turning their backs on Trump.  That said, the polling data is not all that encouraging for a Hillary surge with Hispanic voters.   

First, there is no doubt that Hillary is way ahead of Trump with Hispanic voters overall.  Per Univision polls conducted a few weeks back, Hillary was beating Trump among Hispanic voters in key swing states by 40-50 points. 

Univision Poll

 

That said, the gross level of support is not the relevant metric as Democrats have always won with Hispanics.  The key question for Hillary is whether she will be able to beat Trump by a larger margin among Hispanics than Obama beat Romney in 2012. 

Turns out things aren’t looking so good for Hillary on that front with Univision pointing out that her support among Hispanics has collapsed versus Obama’s margins of victory against Romney in the 2012 presidential race.   

Univision Poll

 

Data from the Pew Research Center confirms that Obama bested Romney by nearly 50 points among Hispanic voters in every swing state except Florida where he only won by 21%.

Hispanic Voters

 

So, when you compare Hillary’s current spread versus Trump with Hispanic voters to Obama’s spread in 2012 it’s easy to see that Hillary isn’t really making any progress at all.  In fact, in the key swing state of Colorado, Hillary’s spread is actually 7 points lower than Obama’s margin of victory in 2012. 

Hispanic Voters

 

Guess we can add the “Hispanic Problem” to Hillary’s growing list of issues.