In just the past week, there has been a plethora of market crash calls: after last week’s Delivering Alpha conference, in which we saw the usual bevy of bearish billionaires, from Paul Singer to Carl Icahn, all predict an imminent market drop, earlier today we presented a must read analysis by TCW’s Tad Rivelle who said that with central banks having lost control, “the time has come to leave the dance floor.” Curiously, he was not the only one to warn of an imminent crash today.
According to Robert Citrone, co-owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers alongside David Tepper, and the Tiger cub who now runs one of the world’s biggest and best-known macro hedge funds Discovery Capital Management, which earlier this year managed over $12 billion, the market moment investors have been anticipating “is at hand.” Well, at least the bearish investors.
As cited first by Bloomberg, Citrone said “we believe we are in the midst of the market correction we have been expecting,” adding “It will likely persist over the next 3-4 months and be the largest correction since the 2008 crisis.”
Citrone, whose fund has been battered this year having generated substantial losses in the early part of the year along most other macro funds, tempered his view by describing the correction as a “healthy adjustment from overvalued market levels, which are primarily a result of exceptionally easy monetary policies.” One of the many hedge fund managers dubbed Tiger cubs after working at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management, Citrone founded Discovery in 1999.
As we reported last week, money managers including Paul Singer have signaled that the markets may be on the precipice as central banks reexamine monetary policy. In remarks last week at the CNBC Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha Conference, Singer said years of easing had created “a very dangerous time in the global economy and global financial markets.” Carl Icahn, who warned of risks at the same event, described predicting the moment of a correction as “sort of a guessing game.”
While we would agree with Citrone, we have yet to see the catalyst he has called for, namely an end to “exceptionally easy monetary policies.” If anything, between last night’s BOJ announcement and today’s latest punt by Janet Yellen, the central banks are far from admitting defeat and will keep slamming the gas pedal until something does finally break.