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Empire State Kicks Off Regional Manufacturing Reports With Dismal Showing: Spotlight on Look-Ahead Sentiment

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / October 17, 2016

The Empire State manufacturing survey is the first in the series of monthly reports from the Fed regions.

This survey picked up where it last left off, in the red, but deeper.

The Econoday Consensus Estimate for the Empire State survey was +1.00 vs. an actual reading of -6.8.

As is typically the case, economists were too optimistic. the lowest estimate for the survey was 0.00.

Highlights

The first indication on October’s factory conditions is negative. The Empire State index is below zero for a third month in a row, at minus 6.80 vs similar readings in September and August. And the details are almost entirely negative with new orders at minus 5.60 for a second sub-zero score in a row. Shipments are at minus 0.60 with employment in reverse for a fourth straight month, at minus 4.70. Unfilled orders and inventories are almost always in contraction in the Empire State sample and they are again in the October report, in low double digits which is even weaker than usual.

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