zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 16, 2017 3:25 PM
Q1 2017 will likely be the weakest period for economic growth of any rate hike since 1980; stock market earnings expectations are tumbling; uncertainty about the Trumpian pillars of stock market strength are surging, and various ‘risk-on’ asset classes around the world and breaking bad.
As RBC’s macro strategist Mark Orsley previously remarked, something has dramatically, and suddenly changed in the market in recent days, as confirmed by bank’s macro model provider. To wit:
There is another interesting force at play in equities that deserves to be flagged. The good folks at QI (our Quant macro model provider) flagged to me that their r2 on SPX has been falling precipitously.
This means their model which incorporates hundreds of different factors is now unable to explain why S&P’s are moving. Previously the main drivers of S&P’s were well explained by 1Y forward earnings estimate, inflation, growth, credit spreads, energy prices, and real rates but that is no longer the case.
That means S&P’s are going through a regime change and typically when the r2 falls this way, it is a red flag and caution is warranted.