Silver as an investment

Gap Between Nowcast and GDPNow Narrows to 1.9 Percentage Points: Or Does It? What Happened?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 18, 2017 3:24:13

On Friday, the FRBNY Nowcast estimate for first quarter GDP dipped from 3.2% to 2.8%.

That makes the spread between Nowcast and GDPNow 1.9 percentage points. However, that straight-up comparison is invalid for reasons discussed below.

First, let’s investigate Nowcast changes.

March 17, 2017: Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2017:Q1 and 2.5% for 2017:Q2.
  • This week’s news had a negative impact on the nowcast, which declined 0.4 percentage point for Q1 and 0.5 percentage point for Q2.
  • Retail sales, housing and construction, and manufacturing data all had negative contributions for both quarters.

Nowcast 1st Quarter History

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