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GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / April 14, 2017 4:15:17

In the wake of dismal retail sales, first-quarter GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the FRBNY Nowcast model ticked lower. Let’s investigate the details and compare the current estimates.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.6 Percent — April 14, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2017:Q1 and 2.1% for 2017:Q2.
  • Incoming data during the week lead to a reduction of the nowcast by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point for 2017:Q1 and 2017:Q2, respectively.
  • The changes in the nowcast were mainly driven by a negative surprise from retail sales.

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