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Key Events In The Coming Week: Inflation, Spending In The Spotlight

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 8, 2017 8:49 AM

With the French election now finally in the rearview mirror, this week’s focus is on global inflation releases, with the spotlight falling on the US and China, as well as retail sales in the US. We also have BoE and RBNZ rates meetings. In other data we note industrial production in the Eurozone, UK and Norway along with US retail sales and Fed speakers.

Key developed market events

  • Thursday, May 11: New Zealand, RBNZ meeting. GS 1.75%, consensus 1.75%, last 1.75%. Looking to the May meeting, while the RBNZ is likely to remain on hold for now, we expect upgrades to the Bank’s inflation forecasts and—possibly—a more constructive description for the global growth outlook.
  • Thursday, May 11: United Kingdom, BOE meeting. GS 0.25%, consensus 0.25%, last 0.25%. We expect no change in Bank Rate or in other policy settings, yet for the MPC to express some skepticism about the flatness of the forward curve for UK rates.
  • Friday, May 12: United States, CPI (Apr). Core: +0.21% mom, consensus +0.2% mom, last -0.1% mom. We expect a 0.21% increase in April core CPI following last month’s outright decline, reflecting a relatively large state-level tobacco tax increase as well as the waning drag from Verizon unlimited data plans.
  • Friday, May 12: United States, Retail sales (Apr). Core: +0.4% mom, consensus +0.4% mom, last +0.6% mom. We estimate core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose 0.4% in April, reflecting improving sales in mall-based discretionary categories after tax refund-related weakness in February and a likely drag in March from unseasonably cold and snowy weather. At the same time, preparations for Winter Storm Stella likely boosted food and beverage sales (+0.5% in March), and we look for sequential softness in that category.

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