zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 31, 2017 4:25 PM
There is a healthy debate between those who work in fixed-income markets and those in the equity markets about who is better at assessing markets. The skepticism of bond guys and gals seems to help them identify turning points. The optimism of equity pros lends to catching the full run of a rally. As an ex-bond trader, I have a hunch but refuse to risk offending our equity-oriented clients by disclosing it. In all seriousness, both professions require similar skill sets to determine an asset’s fair value with the appropriate acknowledgement of inherent risks. More often than not, bond traders and stock traders are on the same page with regard to the economic outlook. However, when they disagree, it is important to take notice.
We created the Trump Range Chart a few months ago to easily track a number of asset classes, gauge the durability of post-election market moves and monitor divergences. In the May 23, 2017 update to that chart, we noted that some indicators such as the Treasury yield curve, regressed to levels observed prior to the election. At the same time, many of the popular equity indexes continue to power ahead to new record highs. The bond market seems to be telling us that the probabilities of the reflation trade have dropped considerably. Meanwhile, the stock market appears to remain convinced that the prospects for growth and reflation are alive and well. Can they both be right?
Given our opinions on the severe economic headwinds facing economic growth and steep equity valuations, we believe this divergence poses a potential warning for equity holders. Accordingly, we thought it appropriate to provide a few graphs to demonstrate the “smarter” guys are not on board the growth and reflation train.
The graph below shows that the U.S. Treasury 2-year/10-year curve which, having gapped almost 75 basis points wider following the election, has reverted back to pre-election levels. Alongside the yield curve is the S&P 500, which continues reaching new highs since the election. The election date in this graph, and all graphs that follow, is highlighted with the vertical dashed line.
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