Silver as an investment

Mario Draghi Explains His Apparent Hawkish-to-Dovish Flip-Flop – ECB Press Conference Live Feed

Bund yields and the euro are lower after the ECB statement seemed to tilt dovishly – with Draghi proclaiming there’s more “whatever it takes” if we need it – painting quite a different picture from his normalization chatter a few weeks back. We are sure he will explain himself fully to avoid any and all confusion during this morning’s press conference.

Once again, here are two cheat sheets to keep tabs on whether Draghi is leaning hawkish or dovish:

From ING

And from Citi:

ECB Press Conference Live Feed (due to start at 0830ET)

Highlights from Draghi’s prepared remarks:

The incoming information confirms a continued strengthening of the economic expansion in the Euro area which has been broadening across sectors and regions. The risk to growth outlook are broadly balanced.

 

While the on-going economic expansion provides confidence that inflation will gradually [indiscernible] to levels in line with our inflation aim, it has yet to translate into stronger inflation dynamics. 

 

Headline inflation is damped by the weakness in energy prices. Moreover, measures of underlying inflation remain overall at subdued levels.

 

Therefore, a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to gradually build up and support headline inflation developments in the medium term. If the outlook becomes less favorable or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase our Asset Purchase Program in terms of size and/or duration.

And from Bloomberg:

  • *DRAGHI SEES RATES AT PRESENT LEVEL WELL PAST END OF QE
  • *DRAGHI: QE WILL RUN AT EU60B/MONTH PACE THROUGH AT LEAST DEC.
  • *DRAGHI: QE WILL RUN UNTIL ECB SEES SUSTAINED INFLATION PICKUP
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB MEASURES PRESERVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS NEEDED
  • *DRAGHI SAYS INCOMING DATA CONFIRM STRENGTHENING ECONOMY
  • *DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO GROWTH ARE BROADLY BALANCED
  • *DRAGHI SAYS RECOVERY HAS BROADENED
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECONOMIC EXPANSION HAS YET TO FED THROUGH TO PRICES
  • *DRAGHI SAYS HEADLINE INFLATION DAMPED BY WEAK ENERGY PRICES
  • *DRAGHI SAYS UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES REMAIN SUBDUED
  • *DRAGHI SAYS VERY SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF ACCOMMODATION IS NEEDED
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB READY TO BOOST SIZE, DURATION OF QE IF NEEDED
  • *DRAGHI SAYS SURVEY RESULTS SIGNAL SOLID, BROAD-BASED GROWTH
  • *DRAGHI SAYS STIMULUS PASS-THROUGH SUPPORTS DOMESTIC DEMAND
  • *DRAGHI SAYS GLOBAL RECOVERY SUPPORTS TRADE, EXPORTS
  • *DRAGHI SAYS EURO-AREA GROWTH DAMPED BY SLUGGISH REFORM PACE
  • *DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO GROWTH ARE BROADLY BALANCED
  • *DRAGHI SAYS MOMENTUM INCREASES CHANCES OF STRONGER UPSWING
  • *DRAGHI SAYS DOWNSIDE RISKS PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO GLOBAL FACTORS
  • *DRAGHI SEES INFLATION AROUND CURRENT LEVEL IN COMING MONTHS
  • *DRAGHI SAYS MEASURES OF UNDERLYING INFLATION REMAIN LOW
  • *DRAGHI: CORE INFLATION TO RISE GRADUALLY OVER MEDIUM TERM
  • *DRAGHI: CORE INFLATION HAS YET TO SHOW CONVINCING UPWARD TREND
  • *DRAGHI: ECB MEASURES SUPPORT BORROWING CONDITIONS SIGNIFICANTLY
  • *DRAGHI SAYS STRUCTURAL REFORMS MUST BE STEPPED UP SUBSTANTIALLY
  • *DRAGHI URGES OTHER POLICY ACTORS TO CONTRIBUTE MORE DECISIVELY
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB TOOK STOCK OF CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ECONOMY

And the most important one:

  • *DRAGHI SAYS TAPERING SCENARIOS ARE NOT BEING DISCUSSED

And the end result of Draghi’s latest reversal: a hawkish spike in the EURUSD: