Appearing on the Today Show earlier this morning, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that President Trump has indicated to him that the administration is prepared to strike North Korea to prevent an attack against the U.S. Pushed on by Matt Lauer on whether a viable military option exists in the region, Graham responded: “They’re wrong. There is a military option to destroy North Korea’s program and North Korea itself.”
“They’re wrong. There is a military option to destroy North Korea’s program and North Korea itself. If there’s going to be a war to stop him [Kim Jong Un], it will be over there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there, they’re not going to die here and he’s [Trump] told me that to my face.”
“And that may be provocative, but not really. When you’re president of the United States, where does your allegiance lie? To the people of the United States. This man, Kim Jong Un, is threatening America with a nuclear tip missile. President Trump doesn’t want a war, the Chinese can stop this, but to China, South Korea, and Japan, Donald Trump is not going to allow this missile.”
“I’m saying it’s inevitable unless North Korea changes because you’re making our president pick between regional stability and homeland security. He’s having to make a choice that no president wants to make. You can stop North Korea militarily or diplomatically, I prefer the diplomatic approach. But they will not be allowed to have a missile to hit America with a nuclear weapon on top and to allow them to do that is really abandoning homeland security.”
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) August 1, 2017
Of course, North Korea tested a second ICBM over the weekend which prompted the following statement from President Trump:
“North Korea’s test launch today of another intercontinental bassistic missile – the second such test in less than a month – is only the latest reckless and dangerous action by the North Korean regime. The United States condemns this test and rejects the regime’s claim that these tests – and these weapons – ensure North Korea’s security. In reality, they have the opposite effect. By threatening the world, these weapons and tests further isolate North Korea, weaken its economy, and deprive it’s people. The United States will take all necessary steps to ensure the security of the American homeland and protect our allies in the region.”
— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) July 28, 2017
* * *
For those who missed it, below is our note on NK’s latest launch.
While North Korea has test fired numerous ballistic missiles (mostly intermediate-range, including one intercontinental) in the past, and as such today’s launch was largely seen as merely the latest political provocation to Trump by a seemingly oblivious Kim John-Un, there was one notable difference in the launch post-mortem: according to press and Pentagon reports, the maximum altitude attained by the ICBM was 3,700 km (2,300 miles) with a flight time of about 47 minutes. This is material because according to All Things Nuclear, based on the latest information, today’s missile test by North Korea could easily reach not only the US West Coast, but also a number of major US cities.
As reported earlier, North Korea launched its missile on a very highly lofted trajectory, which allowed the missile to fall in the Sea of Japan rather than overflying Japan. It appears the ground range of the test was around 1,000 km (600 miles), which put it in or close to Japanese territorial waters.
This is the place where North Korea launched its latest missile (left) and the Japanese island closest to its landing spot (right) pic.twitter.com/IPl4eRG5Yf
— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) July 28, 2017
According to physicist and co-director of the UCS Global Security Program, David Wright, if those numbers are correct, then the missile flown on a standard trajectory would have a range 10,400 km (6,500 miles), not taking into account the Earth’s rotation. Adding the rotation of the Earth increases the range of missiles fired eastward, depending on their direction. Calculating the range of the missile in the direction of some major US cities gives the approximate results in Table 1.
Table 1 shows that Los Angeles, Denver, and Chicago appear to be well within range of this missile, and that Boston and New York may be just within range. Washington, D.C. may be just out of range.
Wright caveats his calculations saying that “it is important to keep in mind that we do not know the mass of the payload the missile carried on this test. If it was lighter than the actual warhead the missile would carry, the ranges would be shorter than those estimated above.”
While the above calculation has yet to be confirmed by third parties, the US is not taking any chances. According to Reuters, top U.S. and South Korean military officials “discussed military options after North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday.”
Marine General Joseph Dunford was joined by the Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, when they called General Lee Sun-jin, chairman of the South Korean Joint Chief of Staff. “During the call Dunford and Harris expressed the ironclad commitment to the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance. The three leaders also discussed military response options,” said Captain Greg Hicks, a spokesman for Dunford.
In light of North Korea’s reportedly expanded offensive capabilities, now that the US has an justification to launch a preemptive “defensive” attack on Pyongyang, a US military operation in North Korea now appears to be only a matter of time.