marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / August 16, 2017
The Japanese yen and Swiss franc remain heavy as the markets continue to shift away from the geopolitical risks. A return to the macroeconomic agenda is being deterred by new drama from Washington and reports suggesting that ECB’s Draghi will not be discussing the central bank’s monetary policy course at Jackson Hole confab, which will take place next week.
Although Draghi will return to Jackson Hole for the first time in a few years, we did not see it is a likely venue for him to talk about what the ECB would likely do in a fortnight (September 7). Even though there is some precedent, we saw the decision about extending the purchases past the year end albeit at a reduced pace as being sufficiently nuanced that the ECB’s leadership would prefer home turf and an increased chance avoiding misunderstandings.
Some suggest that the German Constitutional Court recognition of reasonable arguments that the ECB is overstepping its authority in QE operations would encourage the ECB to wind up its operations before the European Court of Justice hears the case. We do not think this is particularly likely. The German finance minister and the president of the Bundesbank quickly came out and supported the ECB against such charges. The ECB must act with the confidence that it is within its mandate until proven otherwise.
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