Silver as an investment

The ‘MARVEL’ Market – Bonds, Bullion, & The Dollar

In the years ahead, the world will MARVEL as the dollar drinks the rest of the world’s Milkshake.

So says Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson  in his latest presentation…

Gold staged a furious rally at the end of 2017.  So what happens now that we are back to levels that have provided stiff resistance in the past?  Since gold just sits there, we need to look elsewhere to help find the answer.

As global equity markets continue to attract all the attention, behinds the scenes its really a story about the dollar and interest rates.   Many argue the dollar weakness of the last 12 months is due to continue, that the FED will need to abandon its narrative of higher rates (or risk recession), and that US equities follow down with it.

But I don’t think so.  Using Marvel Comics / Superheroes as a backdrop, I show why the dollar is still very much alive.  And over the next few years, the heights to which is rises will surprise many.  And be a source of strength for the US economy, rather than a weakness.

I take a look at the three biggest arguments against a strong dollar and strong US economy

  • Capital Flows
  • Interest Rates
  • Supply / Demand

 and show why I think the arguments are not only wrong, but actually a blessing in disguise.

Further, QE is not coming back, because it never left.  Central Bank balance sheets are still expanding and the world is awash in liquidity.

Because in a Global Economy, it doesn’t matter who prints the QE, what matters is who captures the Flow of the QE.   And by raising rates, and drawing capital to the US, the Dollar is drinking the rest of the world’s QE Milkshake.

The same thing happened in the mid 1920s.  Before the downturn in late 1929,  starting in 1927, short term rates double and the yield curve inverted.  But a recession didn’t happen.  Instead, equities more than doubled and long term Treasuries lost 30%.

Because the dollar is due for a rally, in the short term, gold is due for another pullback.   But in the years ahead, the Dollar & Gold will rise together.  And when the world shakes, The Avengers, as well as Natures Superhero (gold), will show up to save the day.