The last recession in 2008 was spurred by excessive debt in the private sector, mostly in the housing market. But this time, it’ll be worst and much more difficult, as the problem will be caused by corporate debt, according to several leading investors.
The ensuing downturn could be immediate and sharp, once the bull market ends. But some, such as Peter Schiff, already believe we are in a bear market. “Stocks are expensive. The bull market is over. It’s now a bear market. People want to get out. People are allocating out. Growth is slowing whether people want to acknowledge it or not,” said Schiff.
But others still think they have yet to hit the top. “Once we peak, our work shows that we should expect maybe a 40% decline in equities from their peak,” Scott Minerd, chairman of Guggenheim Investments, told Yahoo Finance. “I’m talking about a recession, possibly in early 2020. Stocks tend to do well two years before a recession. But in this rally, it’s the opportunity to sell.”
At the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, the world’s top investors are asking how much longer the good times can last. They claim the current bull-market rally began in 2009, making it one of the longest on record. But others, such as Peter Schiff, said it’s a false recovery because of the money printing scheme employed.
“When we do all that [print money to recover from a recession], the dollar is going to implode because everybody is going to know that the [money printing scheme] experiment failed. Everybody is going to know there is no way out of this box. There is no normalization of rates. That is ever going to happen. Their [The Federal Reserve’s] balance sheet is never going to shrink. The balance sheet is going to grow permanently, which means this banana republic debt monetization. They can no longer pretend that they’re not doing the same things as South American banana republics. It’s a pure ‘we just print money to finance government spending,’ which is going to explode,” said Schiff. –SHTFPlan
The good news, if there is any to be had, is that the tax cuts President Donald Trump signed in 2017 could juice markets a bit longer by leaving more money in American’s pockets. But some investors gathered at the Milken Conference also feel that the corporate forces are now swirling that will trigger the next downturn.
Because the tax cuts didn’t offer a decrease in the size of government, they will add to US government debt. Spending, not taxation, is the problem and will be until the government is reduced. And while the Federal Reserve is gradually raising interest rates, they may still not be high enough to allow for aggressive monetary policy by the time a recession hits and the Fed needs to cut interest rates. “We’re in danger of having a collision between monetary policy and fiscal policy,” Minerd says. Once interest rates rise, the amount owed on the massive amount of debt corporations hold will increase along with the debt owed by the federal government.
We are in for a rough ride, everyone.
If Minerd is right, some of the riskiest investments include high-yield bonds, other fixed-income securities, and eventually stocks. But some investors will undoubtedly hold on, hoping to squeeze out the last gains before the market turns.
Yahoo‘s suggestion? Keep a parachute handy. But we prefer you actually prepare and store things that are of use. Prepping can be difficult and it’s often hard to take that first step, but if you’re new and interested in learning, it’s never too late to start preparing for any potential outcome. The book titled The Prepper’s Blueprint offers a simplistic and easy to follow guideline for those who would like to take that first step.