In a week in which economic data takes a back seat, the big focus for markets this week is likely to be a potentially pivotal EU summit in Brussels. With regards to the highly anticipated EU Summit on Thursday and Friday in Brussels, expect the big topics of discussion amongst EU leaders to be the latest trade war developments and Brexit, as well as migration policy, the EU budget, security and reforming the economic and monetary union. It’s worth highlighting that ahead of the summit, EU leaders including Merkel and Macron also gather informally on Sunday to discuss immigration, amongst other subjects.
As for data next week, the US PCE report for May will be out on Friday and current market expectations is for a +0.2% mom core reading, which should push the annual reading up to +1.9% yoy from +1.8% in April. This would be the highest reading since February 2017. The consensus for the deflator is also +0.2% mom. In Europe the broad Euro area June CPI report is out on Friday too and the core print is expected to fall a modest one-tenth to +1.0% yoy. We should have a decent idea of where that print should come following the regional reports however with June prints due in Spain, Italy and Germany on Thursday, and France on Friday morning.
Away from the inflation reports there isn’t a huge amount else to get excited about data-wise. In the US there are various regional manufacturing reports scattered throughout the week (Dallas Fed on Monday, Richmond Fed on Tuesday, Kansas Fed on Thursday, Chicago PMI on Friday) which are worth watching for their relative prices paid components if anything else. The June consumer confidence print is also due on Tuesday, preliminary durable and capital goods orders on Wednesday and the third and final Q1 GDP revisions on Thursday.
In Europe we’ve got the June confidence indicators for the Euro area on Thursday, and May money and credit aggregates data in the UK on Friday. Asia is fairly quiet next week.
Central bank wise we don’t have any policy meetings scheduled but there are a few speakers worth flagging. Over at the Fed, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter/ neutral) is due to hold an armchair conversation on Tuesday in Alabama in the evening, before Dallas Fed President Kaplan (neutral/voter) speaks in Houston shortly after. Boston Fed President Rosengren (non-voter/hawk) then speaks on Wednesday evening in Washington, before St Louis Fed President Bullard (nonvoter/dove) speaks on Thursday afternoon in St Louis, followed by Bostic again when he meets the Fed Up Coalition in Atlanta. Meanwhile, at the ECB we’ll hear from Hansson on Tuesday and Praet on Wednesday. BoE Governor Carney will also speak on Wednesday morning after the publication of the BoE’s latest Financial Stability Report. BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane will also speak in London on Thursday afternoon which could be interesting following his dissent at this week’s BoE meeting.
Other things to watch out for this week according to Deutsche Bank’s Craig Nicol include Merkel’s Tuesday private talks with leaders of her coalition government on euro area reform and refugee policy. Part two of the Fed’s annual bank stress tests are also out on Thursday.
A detailed daily breakdown of key events courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
- Monday: It’s a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data of note in Europe being the June IFO survey in Germany, while in the US we’ll have the May Chicago Fed national activity index, May new home sales, and June Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.
- Tuesday: Overnight in Japan we’ll get the May PPI print, before the focus turns to the UK with the June CBI retail sales report. In the US the most significant data due out is the June consumer confidence reading, while the June Richmond Fed manufacturing index and April S&P CoreLogic house prices index data are also due. Away from that the ECB’s Hansson is due to speak in the morning while in the evening we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Bostic and Kaplan. German Chancellor Merkel is also due to hold private talks with her coalition partners on refugee policy and euro area reform.
- Wednesday: In Asia on Wednesday we’re due to get Q1 money flow data from the BoJ and May industrial profits data in China. In Europe it is fairly quiet with June consumer confidence data in France and May E3 money supply data for the Euro area due. In the US the main focus will likely be on the preliminary May durable and capital goods orders data, while the May advance goods trade balance is also due along with May pending home sales. Central bank speak continues with the BoE’s Carney speaking in the morning about the BoE’s Financial Stability Report, followed later by the ECB’s Praet and Fed’s Rosengren.
- Thursday: The big focus on Thursday will likely be the EU Summit in Brussels where leaders are due to discuss migration policy, the EU budget, Brexit, security and reforming the economic and monetary union. Datawise, it is looking like a busy day for inflation releases in Europe with preliminary June CPI reports due in Spain, Italy and Germany. We’ll also get June confidence indicators for the Euro area while in the US the third and final reading for Q1 GDP and Core PCE is due, as well as the June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index and latest weekly initial jobless claims data. The Fed’s Bullard and Bostic are also both due to speak in the late afternoon. The Fed will also release part two of its annual bank stress test results.
- Friday: Friday looks set to be another busy day for inflation releases with preliminary June CPI reports due in France and the Euro area, followed by the May PCE report for the US. Other data worth watching includes May employment data in Japan, June unemployment data in Germany, May money and credit aggregates data and the final Q1 GDP print in the UK, and May personal income and spending, June Chicago Fed PMI and final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment revisions in the US.
Finally, Goldman looks at key economic releases along with consensus estimates and notes the durable goods report on Wednesday, the Q1 GDP revision on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.
Monday, June 25
- 10:00 AM New home sales, May (GS flat, consensus +0.8%, last -1.5%): We expect new home sales remained flat in May, following a 1.5% decline in April. While favorable weather may have boosted sales, single family permits and mortgage loan applications both edged lower in May.
- 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, June (consensus +22.5, last +26.8)
Tuesday, June 26
- 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, April (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.53%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 0.5% in April, following a 0.5% increase in March. Our forecast mostly reflects the strong trend the index has been following (+0.7%, 3m ma) and the recent strength of other home price indices.
- 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, June (consensus +15, last +16)
- 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, June (GS 128.5, consensus 128.0, last 128.0): We expect that the consumer confidence index edged 0.5pt higher to 128.5 in the June report, as other higher frequency measures of sentiment and the stock market rose, but we see recent trade policy news as a downside risk.
- 1:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic will speak at an event hosted by the Birmingham Civil Rights Institute in Alabama. Audience and media Q&A are expected.
- 1:45 PM Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Kaplan will give the keynote speech at the Greater Houston Partnership’s State of Talent event in Houston, Texas. Audience and media Q&A are expected.
Wednesday, June 27
- 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, May preliminary (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.8%, last -1.6%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods orders, May preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%); Core capital goods shipments, May preliminary (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%): We estimate durable goods orders pulled back 1.0% further in the preliminary May report, after decreasing 1.6% in April. We expect a firmer 0.7% increase in the durables ex-transportation category and +0.7% increase in core orders. We see scope for reacceleration in unfilled orders, and both top-line results and commentary from industrial firms remain solid. We forecast a more modest 0.2% rise in core capital goods shipments, reflecting somewhat softer industrial production data.
- 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advance goods trade balance, May (GS -$69.0bn, consensus -$69.0bn, last -$67.3bn); Wholesale inventories, May preliminary (last +0.1%): We estimate the goods trade deficit increased $1.7bn in May to -$69.0bn as goods imports likely rose further. We note that inbound container traffic also rebounded in the month, while outbound traffic fell.
- 10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS -2.5%, consensus +0.9%, last -1.3%): Regional housing data released so far deteriorated in May. We estimate pending home sales declined 2.5%. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- or two- month lag.
- 12:15 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will speak on the topic: “Ethics and Economics: Is the Economy Too Sensitive to Economic Downturns?” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.
Thursday, June 28
- 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q1 (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.2%); Personal consumption, Q1 (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.0%); We expect the third vintage of Q1 GDP growth to remain unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar), in line with consensus expectations. Personal consumption growth is likely to remain stable at +1.0%. Additionally, we see downside risk to inventories.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 23 (GS 220k, consensus 220k, last 218k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 16 (consensus 1,718k, last 1,723k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged up by 2k to 220k in the week ending June 23, after filings unexpectedly edged down in the prior week. Consensus expects continuing claims—the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs—to decline by 5k to 1,718k.
- 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, June (consensus +26, last +29)
- 10:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will present on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Ascension Health Management Annual Conference in St. Louis, Missouri. Audience and press Q&A are expected.
- 12:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic will hold a press briefing after a discussion on “barriers to and opportunities for quality affordable housing and jobs” with the Fed Up Coalition at the Center for Working Families in Atlanta, Georgia.
Friday, June 29
- 8:30 AM Personal income, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); Personal spending, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); PCE price index, May (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.22); Core PCE price index, May (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.16%); PCE price index (yoy), May (GS +2.21%, consensus +2.2%, last +1.97%); Core PCE price index (yoy), May (GS +1.90%, consensus +1.9%, last +1.80%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose +0.17% month-over-month in May, or 1.90% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.18% in May, or 2.21% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.5% increase in May personal income and a 0.5% gain in personal spending.
- 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, June (GS 59.2, consensus 60.0, last 62.7): Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed in June, and we estimate that the Chicago PMI weakened by 3.5pt to 59.2. Uncertainty about trade policy could potentially weigh on business sentiment in this report.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June final (GS 99.3, consensus 99.3, last 99.3): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to remain flat at 99.3 in the final June estimate. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.6% in June.
Source: BofA, DB, Goldman