Silver as an investment

Category Archives: 2 Year Treasury

“Dear Fed, Hike Slower… Shrink Faster…”

Authored by Peter Tchir via Brean Capital LLC, Dear Fed, Stop with Rate Hikes and Reduce Balance Sheet We think that the Fed should focus on steepening the yield curve.  That keeping short term rates constant while focusing on balance sheet reduction would benefit the most people and the economy. Effectively, it is time for […]

Foreign Central Banks Pile Into Strong 2 Year Treasury Auction

Following the surprising swoon in the Treasury complex which overnight slid lower following the German Bunds lower, only to rebound after Naimi sent oil sliding, it was not clear how big demand would be for today’s $26 billion auction in 2 Year paper. Moments ago we got the answer, and it was “solid”, with the […]

“Nobody Really Knows Anything Right Now”

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of Convergex Three Fed Thoughts, One Conclusion We learned one thing yesterday: the U.S. Federal Reserve is in the same position as the rest of us when it comes to forecasting the future path of economic growth.  Nobody really “Knows” anything right now.  From that touchstone observation, we add two additional […]

Extreme Gold Positioning Grows As Hedge Funds Add To Record Shorts

With an all time high of 293 ounces of paper per ounce of registered physical gold…   …it appears hedge funds continue to ignore systemic risk and surging physical demand, following the trend lower in paper gold prices by adding to already record short positions in gold last week. With the speculative world near-record long […]

2-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since April 2011

2 Year Treasury yields have jumped 4.5bps today, breaking to 77.4bps – the highest since April 2011 as it appears (despite the 30% odds of a rate hike priced into the ED curve) Fed jawboning is creating front-end selling (in the face of weak data). Notably this is the same level that 2Y rates traded […]

Everyone Has A Plan Until…

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas, Every Federal Reserve Chair since 1979 has faced a notable challenge in the first 12-20 months of their tenure – something akin to capital markets “Bullies” hazing the new kid at school.  Paul Volcker had the 1979-1980 Iranian oil shock/recession, Alan Greenspan the 1987 Stock Market Crash, and Ben Bernanke the […]

8 Capital Markets ‘Threats’ To The Central Bank Narrative

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,  The jawbone is one of the strongest bits of the human skeleton, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has been hitting capital markets hard with its narrative about raising Fed Funds at its September 16-17 meeting.  Now, it appears markets are hitting back.  Yes, today’s selloff started with the surprise yuan devaluation, but the […]

2 Year Treasury Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since March 2011

If the recent batch of longer-dated Treasury auctions were a barnburner with unprecedented demand for “high quality” collateral with duration longer than 3 years, then today’s just concluded 2 Year issuance was somewhat more tame: moments ago the Treasury sold $27 billion in 2 year paper at a yield of .703%, 1 basis point inside […]

The World’s Biggest Asymmetric Trade Just Got Bigger

By: Brad at Ten days ago China cut interest rates in an effort to free up credit and stimulate the economy. This is unlikely to have much of a positive effect on economic growth in China. Rather it is likely to compound the big problem that the Chinese currently face: exports becoming increasingly uncompetitive. China’s biggest […]

Yet Another Unintended Central Planning Consequence: Running To Stand Still

Via Louis-Vincent Gave of GK Research (A Gavekal Company), Lemmings And The Quandary of Negative Real Rates For most portfolio managers, investable assets can be thought of as sitting somewhere on the risk-return curve shown below. Of course, depending on valuations at a particular point in time, positioning in the economic cycle, or overall geopolitical […]