Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Across the Curve

“Dear Fed, Hike Slower… Shrink Faster…”

Authored by Peter Tchir via Brean Capital LLC, Dear Fed, Stop with Rate Hikes and Reduce Balance Sheet We think that the Fed should focus on steepening the yield curve.  That keeping short term rates constant while focusing on balance sheet reduction would benefit the most people and the economy. Effectively, it is time for […]

Global Bond Rout Accelerates Even As Dollar Rally Fizzles

In a continuation of trading patterns observed over the previous two days, on Thursday the global bond rout deepened in the aftermath of the release of President Trump’s tax-cut plan, Janet Yellen’s recent hawkish comments and renewed optimism over the health of the U.S. economy. While global stocks were mostly mixed as investors tried to […]

In Latest Reversal, Trump Weighs Tying Debt Limit Increase To Harvey Disaster Aid

This afternoon, we showed that even as stocks were pushing back to all time highs, a part of the Treasury market was turmoiling as the “debt ceiling” T-Bill spread (Sept/Oct) blew out to the widest level on record.   There were several possible catalysts suggested for this spike in concerns about a favorable outcome of […]

Global Stocks Hit Record High, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2015

In what has been a less exciting session than the previous two, the euro retraced some recent gains as traders grew concerned they may have overestimated the ECB’s hawkish bias ahead of Thursday’s rate decision; in turn the dollar edged higher after the collapse of the GOP healthcare bill sent it to the lowest since […]

Bond Rout Fades With Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; Pound, Yen, Oil Tumble

S&P futures are little changed following yesterday's rout even as Asian and European markets continued selling; the pound slid on poor factory data, the yen tumbled after the BOJ intervened to stabilize the JGB bond market, precious metals flash crashed early in the session, while the selloff in oil accelerated despite yesterday's massive inventory draw, […]

“This Is Getting Out Of Hand” – Another Vol Event Strikes As FANGs Face Worst Week In 5 Months

As legendary market technician John Bollinger tweeted today… "Another volatility event in the US stock market. At the lows S&P -1.4%, VIX +51.1%. This is going to get out of hand one day." And quite an event it was… VIX spiked to 15.16 and liquidity collapsed before panic-vol-sellers struck again (as banks hit unchanged) slamming […]

Europe, US Futures Slip Despite Brent Bouncing Back To $51

Asian stocks rose lifted by commodity names; European equities trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record […]

Stocks Dazed After Trump NAFTA Flop, Tax Plan Disappointment; ECB Looms

European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to “sell […]

Gold Surges, USDJPY, Yields Slide As Markets Finally Respond To Latest Set Of Economic, Geopolitical Shocks

With markets shut on Good Friday, even as the one-two knockout punch of the worst monthly core CPI print in 7 years hit… … coupled with a miss in March retail sales, which suffered their biggest two month drop in 2 years…   … on Sunday night traders were desperate to catch up, or rather […]

Bond Bears Battered To 5-Month Lows But Rate-Hike Bets Top $3.2 Trillion

Since their peak 'shortedness' in mid-January, US Treasury bond bears have covered 500,000 10-year-equivalent contracts, reducing the net speculative short to its lowest since before Thanksgiving 2016. At the same time, however, Eurodollar shorts (bets on Fed rate hikes) have soared to a new record high (over $3.2 trillion notional).   However, both the absolute […]