Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Black Swan

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]

2018: The Year Central Banks Begin Buying Cryptocurrency

Authored by Eugene Etsebeth via CoinDesk.com, Behind closed doors, G7 central banks are sluggish traders that buy and sell the same foreign currencies, marketable securities, special drawing rights (SDR) and gold day in and day out. Central bank traders follow the investment policy enforced by the executive committees with specific asset allocation targets. In order […]

Forget About Catalonia And Brexit, The Next European Black Swan Could Be Transylvania

Via ValueWalk.com, Over the past 100 years, the borders in Central and Eastern Europe have been redrawn time and time again, often leaving groups of people separated from their home country by new borders. Although land often changed hands relatively peacefully, suddenly finding one-selves as an ethnic minority in a new country was bound to […]

David Stockman Derides The Delirious Dozen Of 2017

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, We have previously noted the massive market cap inflation and then stupendous collapse of the Delirious Dozen of 2000. The latter included Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, Intel, GE, Yahoo, AIG and Juniper Networks – plus four others which didn't survive (Lucent, WorldCom, Global Crossing and Nortel). Together they represented a classic blow-off […]

It’s A ‘Turkey’ Market

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, With Thanksgiving week rapidly approaching, I thought it was an apropos time to discuss what I am now calling a “Turkey” market. What’s a “Turkey” market?  Nassim Taleb summed it up well in his 2007 book “The Black Swan.” “Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single […]

“Black Swan” Anxiety Has Never Been Higher

The Fed's Williams warns that they "don't want there to be excesses in financial markets… " Two quick things… The market has almost never been this expensive… As Peter Boockvar warns: "Almost there. S&P 500 price to sales ratio is just 4% from March 2000 peak." And investors have never been more concerned about 'black […]

When The Butterfly Flaps Its Wings…

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com, It remains to be seen what the impact will be from Mother Nature putting the nation’s fourth largest city out-of-business. And for how long? It’s possible that Houston will never entirely recover from Hurricane Harvey. The event may exceed the physical damage that Hurricane Katrina did to New […]

John Mauldin: “One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Trigger A Global Recession”

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis. By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. Yet, most of my […]

Market Liquidity Conditions Are Still Loose As A Goose

Via Global Macro Monitor, Since the Fed began raising interest rates in December 2015,  financial market liquidity conditions have loosened considerably.   Recall our post,  Orwellian Monetary Policy,  which we wrote in May. “Tightening is Easing”   Since U.S. monetary policy began tightening in December 2015, the Fed has added liquidity to the financial system […]

Abe’s Party Suffers “Historic Defeat” In Tokyo Elections, USDJPY Slides

On Sunday Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party suffered what Reuters called a “historic defeat” in the Tokyo assembly election, losing to an upstart outfit in an vote that is seen as a harbinger for Japan’s national elections, and signaling trouble ahead for the premier who has suffered from slumping support after a series […]