Category Archives: Black Swans
The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018
One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]
Bill Blain: “This Time It Really Is Different! The Machines Have Taken Over And They Will Never Sell”
Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners Forget the Known Unknows, its the shocking surprises that are going to get us “Bubbles don’t grow out of thin air, they have a solid basis in reality. But, reality is distorted by misconception..” And it’s a bad start to the week as my Bloomberg obliquely gave the […]
John Mauldin: “One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Trigger A Global Recession”
Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis. By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. Yet, most of my […]
American Exceptionalism: Decelerating Population Growth, Accelerating Money Growth
Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, Since 1971, and the disconnection of the dollar from a finite gold backing, the value of money (the dollar) has been determined by it's purchasing power versus the inflation of the assets to be purchased. Thus printing more money has not necessarily created "wealth" if the assets to be purchased are […]
Summer Epocalypse Countdown: Trump Turmoil Takes Top Off Trump Rally
The following article by David Haggith was published on The Great Recession Blog: When financial Armageddon arrives, it can hit in a flash like a dangerous rogue wave — the kind that rises up when two big waves from different storms intersect and merge into a single wave big enough to capsize a ship. The global Wannacry warware attack and endless waves […]
Chinese Black Swans? No Problem!
With bonds, stocks, and commodities collapsing amid a renewed wave of Chinese monetray conditions tightening, concerns over potential butterfly effects and potential ‘black swans’ are beginning to appear. However, as The South China Morning Post reports, the people of Shanghai have a solution for that… Two deliverymen have been accused of stealing a black swan […]