Silver as an investment

Category Archives: CRE

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]

So Why Did Capital One “Suddenly” Exit Mortgage Lending??

Last week, Capital One Financial (COF) announced that is was formally withdrawing from the residential mortgage loan market.  Some observers mistook this announcement for news, thinking that COF had actually been engaged in residential lending in a serious way.  Housing Wire, for example, reported that COF had “suddenly” exited the mortgage and home equity business. […]

Record Apartment Building-Boom Meets Reality: First CRE Decline Since The Great Recession

By Wolf Richter of WolfStreet Even the Fed put commercial real estate on its financial-stability worry list. No, the crane counters were not wrong. In 2017, the ongoing apartment building-boom in the US will set a new record: 346,000 new rental apartments in buildings with 50+ units are expected to hit the market. How superlative […]

Dead Mall Stalking: One Hedge Fund Manager’s Tour Across Middle-America – Part 2

Via AdventuresInCapitalism.com, Continued from Part 1… Malls are bearing the brunt of changes in retail, but they’re only the canary in the coal mine. Let’s start with a simple premise; commercial real estate (CRE) will change more in the next decade than it has in the past hundred years. Anyone who thinks they can fully […]

$200 Billion Asset Manager Warns “There’s Danger At The Door” As Markets Lose Focus On Fundamentals

There was a time "when central banking was an honest profession," remarks TCW Group's fixed income CIO Ted Rivelle, warning that "asset prices are not meant to be arbitrary quantities that are to be steered or targeted by central bankers." In his latest letter to investors, Rivelle, whose firm overseas $195 billion in assets details […]

The Next Domino To Fall: Commercial Real Estate

Via Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog, Unless the Federal Reserve intends to buy up every dead and dying mall in America, this is one crisis that the Fed can't bail out with a few digital keystrokes. Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, central banks prepare to battle the last financial crisis–which in […]

Dazed & Confused… Treasury Buying Versus Asset Valuations?

Fed Warns: “Asset Valuation Pressures Have Increased”, “Leverage Remains Elevated”

It is a long-running Fed tradition to quietly incorporate material warnings (deep within) about asset prices in the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report submitted as part of the Chair’s congressional testimony, and it did not disappoint this time either, when it made the following warning: “Nonfinancial corporate business leverage has remained elevated by historical standards even […]

Fed Loan Officers Survey Shows Demand Is Tumbling

If ever there was proof that 'hope' is not a strategy, it is the 2017 Q1 Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey. Despite soaring confidence, spiking optimism, and striking gains in financial assets, demand for loans (from credit cards to autos to residential and commercial) have all plunged in the last 3 months. Loand Demand collapsed […]

Norway’s Largest Bank Is Going Long VIX For The First Time: “We See Much More That Can Drag The Market Down”

Add one more brick to the “wall of worry.” Days after reporting that the Norwegian government, pressured by the low oil price while forced to cover government expenses, has withdrawn money from the local sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, only for the first time in history (an amount that in H2 would be equivalent […]