Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Economic Indicators

Household Spending Growth Expectations Crash To Cycle Lows

Despite record high stock prices, soaring consumer sentiment measures, and the constant Fed-spun narrative that incomes will rise amid ‘full-employment’, the latest survey of Americans by The New York Fed signals hope is collapsing for a spending renaissance… Median household spending growth expectations tumbled from 3.29% in March to 2.58% in April, lowest level in […]

The Chart That’s Keeping Goldman Up At Night

The spread between “hard” and “soft”, or survey and sentiment data, ever since the election has been extensively noted and discussed on this website in recent months (especially since over the past two months the soft data has rolled decisively over, while the Citi economic surprise index has crashed at the fastest pace on record). […]

Economic Depression And Denial: “We Want To Believe We Aren’t Japan”

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners, Back on March 10, the New York Fed’s attempt at real-time GDP forecasting predicted that the Q1 2017 estimate would be 3.2%. That would have qualified as another decent quarter, the second out of the past three and somewhat in keeping with “reflation.” As we know today, […]

What Wall Street Expects From Today’s Payrolls Reports

Here's what to expect in a nutshell: US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) M/M Exp. 178K (Prey. 178K, Oct. 161K) US Unemployment Rate (Dec) M/M Exp. 4.70% (Prey. 4.60%, Oct. 4.90%) US Average Hourly Earnings (Dec) M/M Exp. 0.30% (Prey. -0.10%, Oct. 0.40%) Last month's Non-farm payrolls saw an increase of 178k jobs, however, the […]

Why Trump’s “Border Tax Proposal” Is The “Most Important Thing Nobody Is Talking About”

While the market, and various pundits and economists have been mostly focused on the still to be disclosed details of Trump’s infrastructure spending aspects of his fiscal plan, “one of the least talked about but possibly most important tax shifts in the history of the United States” is, according to DB, House Speaker Paul Ryan’s […]

“Paper Money Disappears” Among Nomura’s 10 Grey Swan Events For 2017

From "the end of cash" to "Trump muzzling The Fed" to "Russia going on the warpath", Nomura unveils its unlikely-but-impactful grey swan scenarios for 2017… As Nomura writes, while we would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition they are unpredictable. However, its close cousin, the grey swan, can be envisaged. These […]

Yuan Strengthens After Rebound In China Exports, Trade Balance Disappoints

It appears that devaluing your currency against by over 10% in a year against your major trading partners does have some affect (albeit delayed). China Exports (in Yuan terms) grew at 5.9% in November (the fastest growth since March) (well ahead of the expected 1% decline). Imports, however, also soared (by 13%) in Yuan terms. […]

Chicago PMI Smashes Estimates, Prints At 57.6, Highest Since January 2015 Despite “Falling Labor Demand”

The surge in strong economic data continued moments ago when the Chicago PMI printed at a whopping 57.6, surging from last month’s 50.6, and print not only above the consensus estimate of 52.5, but also above the highest forecast provided by 32 economists. This was the highest print since January 2015. Four of the five […]

The Simple Analytics of Why President-Elect Trump’s Policies Will Probably Result in a Trade War with China

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. The United States has recorded a trade deficit in each year since 1975. This is not surprising. After all, we spend more than we save, and this deficit is financed via a virtually unlimited U.S. line of credit with the […]

Alarm Bells Go Off As 11 Critical Indicators Scream The Global Economic Crisis Is Getting Deeper

Economic activity is slowing down all over the planet, and a whole host of signs are indicating that we are essentially exactly where we were just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008.  Yesterday, I explained that the economies of Japan, Brazil, Canada and Russia are all in recession.  Today, I am mainly […]