Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Economics

Misunderstanding the Economics of Robotics

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / THURSDAY, DECEMBER 07, 2017 Robots are only cost-effective in the narrow niches of commoditized tasks. To reach a more realistic understanding of the economics of robots, let’s return to author Peter Drucker’s maxim: enterprises don’t have profits, enterprises only have expenses. In other words, from the outside, it looks as if businesses generate […]

BMO Sees Risk Of Curve Inverting “As Early As March 2018”

Over the weekend, we published an analysis from Citigroup looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors “have to worry.”  The results were interesting: as Citi wrote, while sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, “where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX”, […]

JPMorgan’s Outlook For 2018: “Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019…”

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, “rationally exuberant“, with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows… Bank of Montreal, Brian Belski, 2,950, EPS $145.00, P/E 20.3x UBS, […]

Ugly, Tailing 7 Year Auction Spooks Market As Foreign Buyers Flee

After one poor and one mediocre auction, today’s sale of $28 billion in 7 year paper was a fiasco, stopping at 2.23%, a massive 1.7bps tail to the 2.213% When Issued, if below last month’s 2.28% courtesy of the ongoing yield curve flattening which increasingly include the belly of the curve. The internals were just […]

“When To Worry?”: How Long After The Curve Inverts Does The Recession Begin

The recent (bear) flattening of the US yield curve to levels not seen since before the GFC, a move which has only accelerated in recent weeks as the stock market hit all time highs, has prompted some to question the strength of the US economic cycle, and others to ask outright how long before the […]

“It’s Global & It’s Viral” – DiMartino Booth Exposes The Fed’s Biggest Fear

Via Greg Hunter's USA Watchdog blog, Former Federal Reserve insider Danielle DiMartino Booth says the record high stock and bond prices make the Fed nervous because it’s fearful of popping this record high credit bubble. DiMartino Booth says, “The Fed’s biggest fear is they know darn well this much credit has built up in the […]

We’re Living In The Age Of Capital Consumption

Authored by Ronald-Peter Stöferle via The Mises Institute, When capital is mentioned in the present-day political debate, the term is usually subject to a rather one-dimensional interpretation: Whether capital saved by citizens, the question of capital reserves held by pension funds, the start-up capital of young entrepreneurs or capital gains taxes on investments are discussed – […]

Treasury Yield Curve Crashes To New 10Y Lows After Hotter-Than-Expected PPI

With a December rate-hike baked into the cake (odds as close to 100% as possible), the hotter-than-expected PPI print has sparked notable outperformance in the long-end (amid Fed-driven slowdown fears) sending the yield curve to new cycle flats – flattest since 2007…   The last two times the yield curve was this flat, the US […]

How Economics Failed The Economy

Authored by Umair Haque via Eudaimonia blog, When, in the 1930s, the great economist Simon Kuznets created GDP, he deliberately left two industries out of this then novel, revolutionary idea of a “national income”: finance and advertising. Don’t worry, this essay isn’t going to be a jeremiad against them, that would be too easy, and […]

Lies And Distractions Surrounding The Diminishing Petrodollar

This report was originally published by Brandon Smith at Alt-Market.com There are a few important rules you have to follow if you want to join the consortium of mainstream economic con-men/analysts. Take special note if you plan on becoming one of these very “special” people: 1) Never discuss the reality that government fiscal statistics are not […]