Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Implied volatility

Gresham’s Law

Authored by Ted Rivelle via TCW.com, This year’s Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Richard Thaler, a pioneer of behavioral economics. But there is a tale told by a lesser known Nobel laureate, Kenneth Arrow. As a World War II weather officer, he was tasked with analyzing the reliability of the army’s long-range weather […]

In The Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken… The Market Is”

Authored by Christopher Cole via Artemis Capital Management, Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the infinite nature of creation from destruction. The sign appears across cultures and […]

SocGen Says “Reduce Risk”: Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Short The VIX

Earlier this week, in the latest observations of broad market complacency, we pointed out that the VIX has remained heavily subdued in September – a month when volatility usually picks up – shrugging off rising geopolitical tension with North Korea, several destructive storms, and the Fed’s plan to normalize its balance sheet, while defying seasonal […]

Morgan Stanley: “Well, That Escalated Quickly”

“Well, that escalated quickly.” That’s how Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets summarizes events in the last week in his latest Sunday Start note, in which he describes how following one of the calmest stretches for stocks since the 1960s, an escalating war of words with North Korea hit late summer markets priced for […]

“We Need More Suckers At The Table” – Quant Funds Stumble As Dumb-Money Disappears

The omniptence of artificial intelligence is unquestioned. The 'future' is automation, robotization, and algorithmic domination is the mantra of the new normal prognosticators – and anyone who challenges this world view is a luddite or 'denier'. There's just one problem – those quantitative, AI-based, computerized algos, that are supposed to be making people obsolete in […]

JPM: “Investors Are Starting To Hedge Against A Crash”

It’s probably not a coincidence that in the same week in which one of the most level-headed investors of all, Oaktree’s Howard Marks issued an alarm on the current state of the market, that JPM has come out with not one (as discussed previously, Marko Kolanovic’s latest “tipping point” note last Thursday was blamed for […]

“Why Does Extraordinarily Low Volatility Matter” Baupost Explains…

With elites increasingly sounding the alarm about the state of the stock market, and various market participants fearing the complacency is masking the fragility of the market's true character; it is no surprise that Baupost's recently named President and Head of Public Investments, Jim Mooney, has joined the chorus. While Mooney (and Klarman's) warning regarding […]

What If The Debt Ceiling Turns Ugly: How To Trade A Fall Spike In Volatility

As we first showed last week, while the equity market has remained completely oblivious to what the upcoming debt ceiling fight, which Morgan Stanley admitted over the weekend “worries us most” of all upcoming catalysts, the same can not be said of the T-Bill market, where 3M-6M yields have inverted the most on record on […]

VIX To Double Within A Year, Natixis Warns

Vol-sellers beware. That's the message from Natixis Global Asset Management’s Brett Olsen and Nicholas J. Elward, in their latest note, as they warn "it stands to reason that the market will see a reversion to the mean and find the VIX trading in the 20+ range before too long." There has been much discussion lately […]

Emmanuel Macron Elected Youngest Ever President Of France With 65% Of The Vote

Update: As Emmanuel Macron arrived in the courtyard of Paris’s Louvre museum to deliver his victory speech to thousands of supporters, the European Union’s anthem “Ode to Joy” played in the background. “Tonight, France won,” he said to rapturous crowds, adding that “Europe and the world are watching us.” Macron said, cited by the Telegraph, […]