Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Interest Rates

When Doves Fly – Bond Market Turbulence Ahead – by Michael Carino

  It is largely acknowledged that after a decade of unprecedented monetary accommodation in the US and abroad, bond markets are extremely overvalued.  Globally, central banks are trying to slowly deflate this bubble but the beast created is not easily broken.  A decade of manipulating bond prices has created a small consortium of large balance […]

We Are Getting Very Close To An Inverted Yield Curve – And If That Happens A Recession Is Essentially Guaranteed

If something happens seven times in a row, do you think that there is a pretty good chance that it will happen the eighth time too?  Immediately prior to the last seven recessions, we have seen an inverted yield curve, and it looks like it is about to happen again for the very first time […]

Global Stocks Slide On Trump Probe Report, Fed Indigestion

Is it going to be another May 17, when US stocks tumbled as concerns of a Trump impeachment over obstruction of justice and impeachment surged ahead of Comey’s tetimony? Overnight, S&P500 futures accelerated their decline following yesterday’s WaPo report that Special Counsel Mueller has launched a probe into potential obstruction of justice by Trump… … […]

Rates Continue To Defy “Wall Street Logic” / by Lance Roberts via / Jun 8, 2017 12:47 PM The “Bond Bears” just can’t seem to catch a break.  Beginning in mid-2013, there have been numerous calls the 30-year bond bull market was dead. The reasoning was simplistic enough – economic growth was set to return pushing inflation, and ultimately interest rates, higher. Unfortunately, as […]

The Same Crossroads / by Jeffrey P. Snider / June 6, 2017 Writing earlier this year on the topic of the Fed’s future balance sheet reductions, Ben Bernanke had occasion to recount his experience from 2013. It was a stressful time for the Fed after they panicked into QE3 (and then QE4) and then almost panicked right out of it. […]

Despite Near Certainty Of June Rate-Hike, Millions Of Eurodollar ‘Bets’ Are Set To Expire Worthless

Via Long Convexity blog, As a trader one of the most frustrating things is to have the correct view on the direction of the market, while not being able to monetize that view because you have the wrong structure on. Due to the lack of a deep & liquid options market in fed fund futures, […]

Warning: the Subprime 2.0 Bubble is About to Burst

As we’ve been outlining for weeks now, Subprime 2.0 is the subprime auto-loan industry. And just as the collapse in the subprime mortgage lending was what signaled the beginning of the housing crisis… trouble in the subprime auto-loan industry will be what signals that the next Debt Crisis is here. On that note… subprime auto-loan […]

The Answer To El-Erian’s Quandary: It’s “A Perfect Storm” Melt Up

On Friday, Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian referenced one of our recent charts showing the dramatic divergence between Treasury yields and stocks, which he said “this (simple yet powerful) chart from @zerohedge warrants a PhD thesis in Finance.” This (simple yet powerful) chart from @zerohedge warrants a PhD thesis in #Finance #stocks #bonds #markets — Mohamed […]

The Fed: Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place / BY SCHIFFGOLD  / JUNE 1, 2017 The Federal Reserve basically has two paths forward. It can continue raising interest rates and risk popping the stock market bubble (among other balloons) it has inflated over the last 9 years. Or it can hold rates at the current artificially low rates and risk a currency crisis. That’s […]

Fed Fail? Traders Cut Rate-Hike Bets By The Most In History Last Week

The last two weeks have seen speculators cover over $710 billion worth of Fed rate-hike bets – the biggest move in Eurodollar futures history as Trump concerns and Fed Minutes reignite lost faith in the ebullient future that sparked the creation of a record $3 trillion bet that The Fed will be right this time. […]