Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Inventory

Empire Fed Survey Soars To Highest In 8 Years (As New Orders Plunge)

Beating expectations by 5 standard deviations… Respondents to the Empire Fed's Manufacturing Survey have not been more exuberant about America since Oct 2009. This continues the recent trend of incredible survey-based beats as hard data remains unimpressed…   The only thing that is odd about this monstrous number is the plunge in new orders… and […]

Dow Tops 22,000 As Dollar Drops To 27-Month Lows

It appears the market's attitude today was simple.., Summarizing today: Despite the biggest comany in the world blowing out earnings – Stocks ended the day 'unchish', VIX ended the day marginally higher Despite weaker than expected jobs data, escalating tensions with Russia, and China and India facing off against each other – Bonds ended the […]

GM Reports Record “Channel Stuffing”: Dealer Auto Inventory Highest Since June 2007

As we await all US carmakers to report June auto sales, we remind readers that when we discussed last month’s disappointing monthly car sales report, which badly missed expectations showing the fifth consecutive month of declining auto sales – the first time this has happened since July 2009 –  with domestic light vehicle auto sales […]

Wholesale Inventories Bounce In May But Remain Drag On Q2 GDP

After tumbling in April, Wholesale Inventories bounced modestly in May (up 0.3% MoM) based on preliminary data. Interestingly Retail Inventories rose 0.6% in May, the biggest jump since January. However, Q2 GDP still faces a headwind as wholesale inventories are down 0.13% so far in April and May.

Visualizing The Train Wreck Of Auto Inventories

Authored by Daniel Ruiz via Blinders Off blog, On May 10, 2017, there were 145,763 new 2016 vehicles unsold. Today, 2016 new car inventory stands at 112,310. At the current rate of sale, we will not sell through the new 2016 inventory till the last week of August. Why this matters Dealers always focus on selling […]

Is CarMax Inventory The Canary In The Coalmine Of The Slumping Auto Industry?

Authored by Dan Ruiz via Blinders Off blog, Carmax is undoubtedly the most efficient and dominant used car retailer in the US. They outsell the next 3 volume leaders combined. However, something has changed. Please consider the following: Will the inventory turn at CarMax outpace the depreciation? This is a snapshot of CarMax’s inventory on […]

Q2 GDP To Suffer As Retail, Wholesale Inventories Tumble In April

Retail and Wholesales Inventories in April dropped 0.3% MoM – dramatically missing expectations of a 0.2% rise (no economists at all expected a drop in inventories). Retail Weak… And Wholesale weak… The biggest driver of the drop was a 0.5% MoM drop in Motor Vehicle inventories. This does not bode well for Q2 GDP…

Carmageddon: After Abysmal April Sales, Auto Workers Prepare For “Extended” Summer Shutdowns

Auto OEMs typically shut down plants once a year during the summer to retool for model changeovers and whatever general maintenance is required.  But this year summer shutdowns will be about much more than just retooling plants.  With inventory soaring on dealer lots, auto OEMs will likely have no choice but to extend their typically […]

Biggest US Equity Outflows Since Brexit; US Banks Hit The Hardest

The latest evidence that rumors of Trumpflation trade’s death are not greatly exagerated came overnight from Bank of America which reported that based equity funds saw net outflows of $8.9 billion, the largest in 38 weeks. The most impacted sector was, not surprisingly, banks – the biggest beneficiary of the post-Trump election victory rally, which […]

Ford Warns “Used Car Prices Will Drop For Years”

Earlier this morning we noted Ford’s “CFO Let’s Chat” meeting with analysts before which Ford announced weak 1Q adj. EPS guidance of 30c-35c, coming in well below analyst estimates of 47c, which they blamed on higher costs, lower volume & unfavorable exchange rates.  With the call now concluded, here are a couple of the key […]