Silver as an investment

Category Archives: macroeconomics

“The Hope Trade” Is Over: BofA Slashes Its 2017 GDP Forecast To Just 2.1%

First they came for the Trump Trade… then they came for the hope. And, as a result, BofA has thrown in the towel on its economic rebound for this year. As BofA’s Michelle Meyer writes, “Hopes for a big fiscal stimulus have faded, prompting us to revise our 2018 GDP growth forecast to 2.1%, down […]

Welcome To The Valium Era

Authored by Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner, annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum, Don’t Be Fooled by These Calm Markets What is happening in the world of money? Well – the most striking thing is: nothing. It doesn’t seem to matter what happens. Dysfunction in Washington. Meltdown of the techs. No matter how rough the seas get, […]

“FOMC Drift” In Full Effect As Global Stocks Rise; S&P Futures Hit New Record; Oil Slides

With last Friday’s “tech wreck” now a distant memory, this morning the “FOMC Drift” described yesterday, which “guarantees” higher stock prices and a lower dollar heading into the Fed announcement is in full effect, with European and Asian stocks rising for a second day, led by rebounding tech shares, while S&P futures are modestly in […]

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike This Week, But Here Are “The Two Most Interesting Questions”

On Wedensday the FOMC will hike rates by another 25 bps – an event which the Fed Funds market prices in with near virtual certainty, while Goldman calls the rate increase “extremely likely” – and only a “tail” event like an extremely weak CPI report on Wednesday morning, hours ahead of the Fed announcement, has […]

U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

While many “conventional” indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed’s target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one […]

South Africa Unexpectedly Plunges Into Recession

Despite expectations (among 19 'economists') that growth would be up 1.0% in Q1, South African GDP tumbled 0.7% (the second drop in a row) pushing the nation back into recession after eight years. The median of 19 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey was for 1 percent expansion. There was only one forecast for a […]

Soaring Debt = Slow Growth = Even More Debt = Systemic Crisis

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, It’s just common sense: Borrow too much money and the weight of this debt makes it hard to do things that used to be easy. This truism is now (finally!) hitting home, and blame is being apportioned. A couple of recent examples: Over The Last 10 Years The U.S. […]

China Manufacturing Contracts For The First Time In A Year: “The Economy Is Clearly On A Downward Trajectory”

Following yesterday's official  (if less credible and focused mostly on SOEs) manufacturing and non-mfg PMI reports from China's National Bureau of Statistics, both of which came either in line or slightly better than expected, moments ago Caixin/Markit reported its own set of Chinese manufacturing data, and it was far more disappointing: at 49.6, not only […]

Albert Edwards: “What On Earth Is Going On With US Wages”

When Albert Edwards predicted in late 2016 that a surge in wage inflation was imminent, we were confused by this prediction from the world’s preeminent deflationist: after all, not only had not a single economic indicator validated a tighter labor market despite unemployment just above 4%, but as we have have repeatedly demonstrated what little […]

American Exceptionalism: Decelerating Population Growth, Accelerating Money Growth

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, Since 1971, and the disconnection of the dollar from a finite gold backing, the value of money (the dollar) has been determined by it's purchasing power versus the inflation of the assets to be purchased.  Thus printing more money has not necessarily created "wealth" if the assets to be purchased are […]