Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Mathematical finance

‘Risk’ May Be Low But Uncertainty Over “Unknown Unknowns” Just Hit Record Highs

While the fear-tracking VIX has been languishing near record lows this year, a gauge of so-called ambiguity, meant to chronicle the degree of uncertainty investors have in the probabilities they use to make decisions, has been at all-time highs in recent months, indicating that there’s more fear built into the stock market than common measures […]

The Stock Market & The FOMC – An Astonishing Statistic

Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the […]

A Gift From The Oldies

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at I bumped into a friendly bloke at my local gym last week. Jim is his name. Jim tells me he just started because, and I quote, “my doctor says I’m going to die unless I do something”. Now, I assure you it doesn’t take a doctor to figure this out. One glance in […]

Eric Peters: Today’s Opportunities Include Negative Convexity, Complexity, Illiquidity, Leverage, Or All The Above

From the latest Weekend Notes by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management Anecdote “What are the odds we come across an opportunity in the coming 4yrs to earn 20%?” the investor asked his team. “High,” they answered. “The odds are 100%,” he said, having seen this movie a few times. “So our cost […]

Copper Crash And Yield Curve Carnage As Tech, Trannies, & TBTFs All Tumble

Today was a day in the upside-down: Banks underperformed Tech; High tax underperformed Low tax; Momo outperformed Value; Nasdaq outperformed S&P; and VIX down with stocks down…   While Nasdaq (green) outperformed on the day, and was bid at the open, Trannies (blue) underperformed; note that as Europe closed, everything rolled over….   Only Trannies […]

CME Unveils “Weirdest Chart Ever”

Authored by Erik Norland via CME Group, We freely admit: Figure 1 is probably the strangest chart that you will ever see, at least in finance.  You may be wondering: did they throw blue spaghetti noodle on paper for inspiration and then write an economics article about it?  Or, have they spent too much time […]

Flynn Flush Rescues ‘VIX Elephant’ As ’50 Cent’ Backs Up The Truck

The “VIX Elephant” has awakened. And “50 Cent” is back. That's the mysterious-sounding ointroduction to a notable market insight from Bloomberg this mornig as they note the turmoil surrounding Mike Flynn headlines – spiking VIX and slamming stocks – provided two big options market 'whales' with some relief and room to move… First, the trader […]

Why Deutsche Thinks 2017 “Was The Most Boring Year Ever”

As part of the macro forecast in his just released 2018 Credit Outlook (more on that in a subsequent post), DB’s Jim Reid first looks back at the almost concluded 2017 and muses that “whichever way you cut it, it’s likely that 2017 will go down as one of, if not the least, volatile year […]

Citi’s Shocking Admission: “There Is A Growing Fear Among Central Bankers They’ve Lost Control”

Earlier we showed a variation on a VIX chart from Citi’s Hans Lorenzen which, if it doesn’t impress, or scare you, then nothing probably will. However, leaving readers unimpressed – and unscared – will not satisfy Lorenzen, which is why the credit strategist who works together with the godfather of rational doom, Matt King, and […]

Muir: “People Are Going To Be Wiped Out” By Short-VIX ETFs

Back in August, we highlighted a story in the New York Times about a former manager at Target who decided to try day trading with $500,000 he had saved up. Over the following years, he turned that into $13 million by following one simple strategy: Shorting volatility every time it spiked. As MacroVoices host Erik […]