Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Mean Reversion

“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moment Dynamics

Back in July, Deutsche Bank’s derivative strategist Aleksandar Kocic believed he had found the moment the market broke, which he defined as a terminal dislocation between market and economic policy uncertainty: as he wrote 4 months ago, it was some time in 2012 that markets “lost their capacity to deal with uncertainty.” It was also […]

In The Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken… The Market Is”

Authored by Christopher Cole via Artemis Capital Management, Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the infinite nature of creation from destruction. The sign appears across cultures and […]

Mark Hanson Warns, Housing Affordability Never Worse… By A Long-Shot

Authored by Mark Hanson via MHanson.com, Bottom Lines:  The income required to buy a median priced builder house has been more diverged from fundamental, end-user, mortgage-needing, shelter-buyer cohort income (purchasing power), which is why builder demand and end-user resales remain anemic.   Meaningful sales growth with this affordability backdrop is impossible. A mean reversion – […]

“It’s Going To Be A Long Summer” One Trader Warns No One, Not Even The Fed, Believe Their Own Forecasts

It was fun while it lasted. For a few brief months, The Fed appeared to 'hawkish, no matter what' as data-dependent morphed into data-ignorant. Markets relished the confidence-inpiring message from the ivory tower academics… but, as former FX trader Rich Breslow notes, none of that occurred in reality and now, "no one really believes even […]

JPM Head Quant Warns Of “Catastrophic Losses” For Short Vol Strategies

It has been a while since we heard from JPM’s quant guru, Marko Kolanovic, who following the recent FANG crash and quant rotations and ahead of this Friday’s massive S&P op-ex, has published his latest latter, covering everything from the aforementioned market moves, to the ongoing drastic changes in the market structure, to the prevailing […]

“Sell Economic Ignorance, Buy Gold”

"We live in an age of advanced monetary surrealism…." is how Incrementum's Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J. Valek begin their latest epic tome on the precious metals market "In Gold We Trust."  In Q1 2017 alone, the largest central banks created the equivalent of almost USD 1,000 bn. worth of central bank money ex nihilo. […]

Under Armour’s Stock Crashed… So CEO Built A Whiskey Distillery

Via StockBoardAsset.com, It’s no secret that Under Armour’s stock has crashed -65% since 4Q2015. The apparel bubble seems to be experiencing something called mean reversion with the possibility of further downside in excess of -29%. At or around today’s fair market value, industry comps show <UA> at a startling 43.7 P/E on expectations of growth […]

“Someone Is Blowing Up”: RBC Warns China-Induced Unwinds Are Escalating

"Something is off," warns RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott in the introduction to his latest market noting that the swing in US fiscal policy optimism is coming at a critical time as the China's liquidity tightening is spooking the reflation story. SUMMARY: Movement on US fiscal policy is currently driving US rates and […]

The 2nd Commandment Of Trading

Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas, Earnings and interest rates may be the two most important ingredients for stock returns, but there is one more underappreciated component: human emotions. Take the disposition effect, for example, which suggests investors have a greater tendency to sell stocks at a gain compared to stocks at a loss. This violates the […]

Citi’s Matt King: “We Think You Should Sell”

With spreads at post-crisis tights, equities making new highs, and new issues oversubscribed, markets are clearly exuberant. But could it be rational this time? We’re not convinced.       – Citi’s Matt King In a surprisingly bearish report, Citi’s Matt King has issued a new, long-awaited note in which he asks rhetorically “what’s a manager supposed […]