Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Merchandising

“I Was Expecting Many More People”: Black Friday Tumbles To 3rd Spot In Busiest Shopping Days Of The Year

It has been an odd year for retail: with an estimated 6,000 store closures, and 65,000 fewer retail jobs than at the start of the year, many have said shorting retail, and especially malls, is the next “big short” trade. Indeed, one look at the performance of the mall heavy CMBX 6 BBB- tranche confirms […]

Dead Mall Stalking: One Hedge Fund Manager’s Tour Across Middle-America – Part 3

Via AdventuresInCapitalism.com, Part 1 here… Part 2 here… Ever since the first Sears catalog was published in 1888 (the Amazon.com of its day), pundits have called for the death of retail establishments. It’s easy to see why they would think that such a thing was happening—namely stores around them were closing in rapid succession. Of […]

Retail Sales Rebound In July – Biggest Jump Since Dec 2016 On Record Auto Incentives

After declining for two straight months, US Retail Sales in July rebounded dramatically to a 0.6% MoM gain – the most since Dec 2016 – driven a surge in motor vehicles (record incentives) and department stores (more inventives?). Year-over-year saw upward revisions and a rebound to a 4.2% rise in July. The last two month's […]

One Bank’s Stunning Forecast: “A Quarter Of All Malls Will Close Over The Next Five Years”

One month ago, we first presented several striking charts and observations from Credit Suisse’s retail analyst, Christian Buss, who showed the extent of the devastation sweeping through the US retail sector. To be sure, while the mass shuttering of retail stores – just today Michael Kors announced the company would close up to 125 full-price […]

Q2 GDP To Suffer As Retail, Wholesale Inventories Tumble In April

Retail and Wholesales Inventories in April dropped 0.3% MoM – dramatically missing expectations of a 0.2% rise (no economists at all expected a drop in inventories). Retail Weak… And Wholesale weak… The biggest driver of the drop was a 0.5% MoM drop in Motor Vehicle inventories. This does not bode well for Q2 GDP…

BofA Has A Last Minute Warning Ahead Of Today’s Retail Sales Number

With retailers reporting abysmal Q1 earnings data, there is much at stake in today’s retail sales report, perhaps even more than in the CPI report (which either this month, or June at the latest, will post a steep drop due to energy “base effect” as oil prices today are now lower than a year ago). […]

“The Retail Bubble Has Now Burst”: A Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017

        “Thousands of new doors opened and rents soared. This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst.”         – Richard Hayne, Urban Outfitters CEO, March 2017 The devastation in the US retail sector is accelerating in 2017, and in addition to the surging number of brick and mortar […]

Retail Sales Decelerate, Rise 0.1% As Expected; Control Group Disappoints

Followng yesterday’s disturbing debit and credit card spending report from Bank of America for February which showed broad based declines across most categories, and a collapse in Department Store sales, the whisper expectation for today’s retail sales report was for a contraction. Instead, perhaps courtesy of the traditional aggressive seasonal adjustments, the Census Bureau announced […]

“Something Snapped”: US Department Store Sales Crash Most On Record

As we first documented last week in “Mega-Bears Smell Blood As Mall REITs Tumble” and as Bloomberg followed up yesterday, looking at CMBS on the Mall REIT space, many have set their sights on mall REITs as the “next big short.” However, an obvious question that has emerged is whether it is too late to […]

What The Hell Is Going On?

Via Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog, “The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.” –  H.L. Mencken   “The older I get the less I listen to what people say and the more I look at what they do.”– Andrew Carnegie I’m 53 years old. The […]