Silver as an investment

Category Archives: National accounts

Key Events In The Last Week Before Christmas

It might be the last full week before Christmas – with both newsflow and trading volumes set to slide substantially – but there’s still a few interesting events and data releases to look forward to next week. Among the relatively sparse data releases schedule, we get US GDP, core PCE, housing and durable goods orders […]

How Economics Failed The Economy

Authored by Umair Haque via Eudaimonia blog, When, in the 1930s, the great economist Simon Kuznets created GDP, he deliberately left two industries out of this then novel, revolutionary idea of a “national income”: finance and advertising. Don’t worry, this essay isn’t going to be a jeremiad against them, that would be too easy, and […]

We Are Already In Depression (If Borrowing Money Is Not Income)

Via Baker & Company Advisory Group, The U.S. economy is not as solid as it appears. Statistical anomalies hide profound weakness. I will examine actual GDP and actual employment. Warning: not for the faint of heart. Do you consider debt as income? Before you answer that, let’s perform a thought experiment. Imagine that you had taken […]

US Second Quarter GDP Revised Sharply Higher To 3.0%, Best In Two Years

In a surprise for traders – and the Fed – moments ago the BEA reported that after its first revision of Q2 GDP (a quarter which ended two months ago), the initial estimate of 2.6% was revised to 3.0%, beating expectations of a 2.7% print, and the highest annualized growth rate since Q1 2015. The […]

Goldman Says Hurricane Harvey Will Reduce Q3 GDP; JPMorgan Says It Will Boost It

There are still two to three days before the peak flooding – and damage – in Houston arrives, yet already Wall Street is trying to calculate how much the worst natural disaster in decades befalling the 4th largest American city will impact US GDP. Or rather boost it, because in two notes out late in […]

Mapping The Foreign Trade Debate – Where Do ‘You’ Belong?

Via FFWiley.com, Worried that recent U.S.–China trade dialog sounds like a Mayweather–McGregor promotional tour? Concerned that we might be headed for a repeat of the Great Depression era’s race-to-the-bottom tariff wars? Or, maybe you’re relieved that diplomats are no longer being diplomatic? Maybe you think it’s about time Washington stood up for American jobs? However […]

An Indicator Of Peril

Authored by 720Global's Michael Lebowitz, via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Thanks to Jesse Felder, we recently stumbled upon a measure of economic conditions that has reliably signaled every recession since 1948. The data point, Real Value Added, is currently in negative territory and may, therefore, be a harbinger of an economic downturn.  If it is a false signal, […]

Wholesale Inventories Bounce In May But Remain Drag On Q2 GDP

After tumbling in April, Wholesale Inventories bounced modestly in May (up 0.3% MoM) based on preliminary data. Interestingly Retail Inventories rose 0.6% in May, the biggest jump since January. However, Q2 GDP still faces a headwind as wholesale inventories are down 0.13% so far in April and May.

NY Fed Crashes Trump’s Party, Slashes Q2 GDP Forecast

A day after President Trump proclaimed Q2 GDP “numbers are going to be shockingly good,” The New York Fed has slashed its forecast for America’s growth to just 1.86%. Wednesday… “I think this quarter’s GDP numbers are going to be shockingly good given all the facts we’re seeing” Thursday… “I think some very good numbers […]

JPM Cuts Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.3%

While we wait to see if the Atlanta Fed will cut its final Q1 GDP estimate ahead of tomorrow’s official print to 0% or negative, here comes JPM which after slashing its Q1 GDP tracker from 0.6% to 0.4% yesterday, having started the quarter – like most others on Wall Street – at 3%, just […]