Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Nominal GDP

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]

JPMorgan’s Outlook For 2018: “Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019…”

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, “rationally exuberant“, with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows… Bank of Montreal, Brian Belski, 2,950, EPS $145.00, P/E 20.3x UBS, […]

Goldman: Global Capex Is Accelerating (But It Might Not Be Good News)

In “Capex complex: Seeking a revival in global capex”, Goldman Sachs is reversing its bearish stance and getting bullish on global capex prospects. Global capex has hit a trough. After three years of declines, aggregate capex for Goldman Sachs’ coverage of c.2,500 companies is set to grow by c.4% yoy in 2017 according to our […]

Andy Xie Warns “The Bubble Economy Is Set To Burst” As Political Tension Soars

Authored by Andy Xie via The South China Morning Post, Central banks continue to focus on consumption inflation, not asset inflation, in their decisions. Their attitude has supported one bubble after another. These bubbles have led to rising ­inequality and made mass consumer inflation less likely. Since the 2008 financial crisis, asset inflation has fully […]

“I Was Wrong”: Albert Edwards Finds Something That Has Never Happened Before

At the start of the year, we were surprised when SocGen’s Albert “Ice Age” Edwards, the biggest perma-deflationist on Wall Street, flipped his outlook on the US economy, and said he now expected a fast spike in inflation driven by wage growth, which in turn would prompt an even more accelerated tightening cycle by the […]

Mauldin: 2 Charts Confirm A US Recession Within 18 Months

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, Stock valuations are the discounted values of future earnings. Future earnings depend on future revenue, which may diminish whenever the future includes a recession. So, broad economic conditions are a big factor to watch in stock valuation. Broad economic conditions depend ultimately on the consumer’s ability and willingness to […]

David Stockman Warns “Don’t Forget About The Red Swan”

Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning, Given the anti-Trump feeding frenzy, we continue to believe that a Swan is on its way bearing Orange. But if that’s not enough to dissuade the dip buyers, perhaps the impending arrival of the Red Swan will at least give them pause. The chart below comprises a […]

UBS Explains Why The Next Credit Unwind Will Be Unlike Anything We’ve Seen Before

Several weeks ago, Janet Yellen boldly declared “I don’t believe we will see another crisis in our lifetime.”  For the rest of us who live in reality there is little doubt that the latest Fed-fueled credit bubble will eventually burst in epic fashion and once again lay waste to the personal balance sheets of millions […]

An Indicator Of Peril

Authored by 720Global's Michael Lebowitz, via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Thanks to Jesse Felder, we recently stumbled upon a measure of economic conditions that has reliably signaled every recession since 1948. The data point, Real Value Added, is currently in negative territory and may, therefore, be a harbinger of an economic downturn.  If it is a false signal, […]

Yanking The Bank Of Japan’s Chain – “It’s Basic Math, Stupid!”

Authored by EconomicPrism's MN Gordon, annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum, Mathematical Certainties Based on the simple reflection that arithmetic is more than just an abstraction, we offer a modest observation.  The social safety nets of industrialized economies, including the United States, have frayed at the edges.  Soon the safety net’s fabric will snap. This recognition […]