Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Output Gap

“They Are Sleepwalking Into A Major Correction”: One Trader Expects A Violent Move In Bunds

With many expecting long-yield to continue declining no matter what, and how many hikes, the Fed and central banks do on the short end, Tommi Utoslahti, a former derivatives trader and analyst and currently one of Bloomberg’s Global Macro squawkers, disagrees and as he writes in his latest Markets Live note below, expects a violent […]

“When To Worry?”: How Long After The Curve Inverts Does The Recession Begin

The recent (bear) flattening of the US yield curve to levels not seen since before the GFC, a move which has only accelerated in recent weeks as the stock market hit all time highs, has prompted some to question the strength of the US economic cycle, and others to ask outright how long before the […]

Kevin Warsh May Be The Next Fed Head – Let’s See What He Really Thinks

Authored bvy Daniel Nevins via, As reported earlier this morning by the Wall Street Journal, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh yesterday to discuss the potential vacancy at the Fed next February. Warsh already has central banking experience, having sat on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from February 2006 […]

BofA: “The Longer This Continues, The More The Current Regime Echoes 2004-2007”

There is no getting away from it: in what has become a long-running tradition, every day brings a new explanation (or at least attempt) to the current low-vol regime from a major bank, and today it was (again) Bank of America’s turn to explain why the VIX, and cross asset vol in general, both continue […]

“Buy All The Things” – Yellen’s Dovish Flip Sparks Bid In Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin

Did The Fed just step in to replace the Trump premium as Junior's email dashes hopes of tax breaks further? Timing is certainly interesting… Equities and Treasuries rose and the dollar sank after markets interpreted Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress as dovish even as it echoed the most recent FOMC statement. The rally was aided […]

BOE Keeps Rate At 0.25%, Warns Rates May Rise Faster In Case Of “Smooth” Brexit

Just as consensus had expected, the BOE kept its interest rate at 0.25% after a 7-1 vote; in a unaimous vote it also kept its corporate and government bond purchase programs unchanged at GBP10 and GBP435 BN respectively. The biggest highlight in the statement was the BOE’s note that monetary policy may need to be […]

“There’s Something Weird Going On”: Jeff Snider On The Global Dollar Shortage

The first time we explained that one of the biggest risks facing a world in which the dollar is the reserve currency is a global USD shortage, was in mid-2009, when we wrote “How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World.” At the time, the IMF calculated that just ahead of the financial crisis, “major […]

Tempering US Economic Growth Expectations

Submitted by Eric Bush via Gavekal Capital blog, Listen, before we go through a litany of economic charts that pour some cold water on the recent bout of optimism regarding US economic growth prospects we want to stress that we don’t believe economic growth is about to fall off of a cliff. Quite the contrary, we feel […]

Bridgewater Calculates How Much Time Central Banks Have Left

One of the key themes that have emerged in the past year is that, having loaded up their balance sheets with tens of trillions in various assets, central banks are “running out of road.” While it is a topic extensively discussed on these pages, going all the way back to 2014, a good summary of […]

Loonie Surges As BOC Keeps Rate Unchanged, Cuts 2016, 2017 GDP, Blames Brexit, Wildfires, Weak Consumption

The Bank of Canada did not surprise moments ago when it kept the overnight rate at 0.5%, as expected The Bank said that the “current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate” adding that risks to inflation profile are roughly balanced. It also said that “fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth over […]