Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Payroll Data

Previewing The September “Hurricane-Disrupted” Jobs Report

Tomorrow’s hurricane-affected September jobs report will be… confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and […]

August Payrolls Preview: Prepare For Disappointment

If there is one common theme across sellside previews of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls number, expected at 180K after a surprising jump to 209K in July, it is to brace for disappointment, or in Wall Street parlance, “downside risks.” And it’s not because of Harvey which hit the US far too late in the month to […]

In Fiscal Dire Straits, Connecticut Showers State Disability Workers With Overtime Pay

Judging by muni spreads, Illinois is widely considered the most financially troubled state in the country. However, preppy Connecticut, which has the highest per-capita income in the country and whose capital Hartford has been on the verge of bankruptcy for months, isn’t far behind. As lame-duck Democratic Gov. Daniel Malloy battles with the legislature – […]

Bond Rout Fades With Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; Pound, Yen, Oil Tumble

S&P futures are little changed following yesterday's rout even as Asian and European markets continued selling; the pound slid on poor factory data, the yen tumbled after the BOJ intervened to stabilize the JGB bond market, precious metals flash crashed early in the session, while the selloff in oil accelerated despite yesterday's massive inventory draw, […]

Why trusting in the bigger picture gives you trust in gold

Trump pulls out of Paris Climate Accord Why trusting in the bigger picture gives you trust in gold Gold pauses ahead of non-farm payrolls data In Gold We Trust 2017 released Reports on the ‘Everything Bubble’ On average gold is up 5.88% ytd, since start of 2017. Trump ‘was the trigger of the sudden reverse […]

US Futures Rebound Sharply, Erase All Syrian Airstrike Losses

After initially tumbling in the aftermath of the U.S. missile attack on Syria which jolted financial markets, boosting haven assets and temporarily shifting investor focus from today’s jobs data , S&P futures have managed to recoup all losses (the Nikkei closed up 0.4% after sliding earlier in the session), with Europe also just fractionally lower […]

Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects

As recently as two months ago – when December rate hike odds were at or below 50% – the monthly payrolls report was watched closely for hints about the Fed’s next move. However, now that December rate hike odds are effectively 100% (CME Fed has seen a modest drop to 92.7% in recent days), what […]

Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can […]

“Blunt Language” – Goldman Explains Why It Is So Confident The Fed Will Hike In Under 3 Weeks

After Friday’s payrolls miss, the market’s initial reaction was to aggressively fade the probability of a near-term Fed rate hike, as September odds initially tumbled, only to quickly rebound into the afternoon. What catalyzed this jump? As we reported at the time, the move was almost entirely driven by an unexpected note by Goldman’s Jan […]

Payrolls Preview: Brace For Disappointment (But Expect The Fed To Shrug It Off)

As we noted earlier, August Non-farm Payrolls have been weaker than consensus expectations in each of the last 5 years and in 14 of the last 18 years of available data. Note: This data compares the initial data print with the consensus expectations at the time of the print. And furthermore, going back 25 years, […]