Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Payroll

October Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings Miss Big Despite Strong Upward Revisions

Well, with virtually everyone expecting a 300K+ payrolls number after last month’s negative hurricane-distorted print, and with whispers of a 400K print floating around, it only made sense that not only would payrolls disppoint, printing at 261K, one standard deviation below the 310K consensus estimate (and that even with a whopping 89,000 waiters and bartenders […]

Payrolls Preview: Here Comes The Post-Hurricane Surge

Submitted by RanSquawk The BLS will release the October Employment Report at 08:30am ET on Friday, November 3.  The Street is looking for a veritable surge in hiring following the hurricane-related disruption last month sent monthly payrolls to the first negative print in 7 years. Analysts also expect wage growth to continue rising: Median forecasts […]

September “Hurricane” Payrolls Tumble 33,000, First Drop In Seven Years, As Wages Surge Due To Labor Shortages

As noted earlier, Wall Street was completely clueless ahead of today’s payroll, with most expecting a small positive print but two brave forecasters went so far as to predict that the recent hurricanes would result in a negative print, and sure enough, moments ago the BLS reported that in September, the US economy lost 33,000 […]

Look Through the US Jobs Report

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / October 6, 2017 Traders are putting the final touches on another strong weekly performance for the US dollar.  Strong economic data, including the PMIs, auto sales, and factory orders have surprised to the market.  The ADP report warns that the storms that flattered some high frequency data will likely skew today’s […]

Previewing The September “Hurricane-Disrupted” Jobs Report

Tomorrow’s hurricane-affected September jobs report will be… confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and […]

August Payrolls Preview: Prepare For Disappointment

If there is one common theme across sellside previews of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls number, expected at 180K after a surprising jump to 209K in July, it is to brace for disappointment, or in Wall Street parlance, “downside risks.” And it’s not because of Harvey which hit the US far too late in the month to […]

Labor Market ‘Breadth’ Nears Record Low

the acclaimed @zerohedge chart on bartenders: pop adjust food&drinking…the NFP growth from the 2007 peak i'll take the delta on the rocks pic.twitter.com/yL2DAiqfjy — tom keene (@tomkeene) August 4, 2017 zerohedge.com / by Teddy Vallee via Pervalle.com / Aug 6, 2017 Tom Keene was out with a chart today referencing Zerohedge’s point that a large percentage of the […]

June Payrolls Preview: With The Fed On Autopilot, You Can Skip This One

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, then another debacle in May, the June payrolls report due at 8:30am will be… very much irrelevant, because as Citi pointed out earlier, the Fed is now data-independent and will keep hiking until financial conditions finally tighten (read: stocks drop). In other words, with […]

May Payrolls Preview: The Tiebreaker

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, the May payrolls report due at 8:30am on Friday will be the tiebreaker, not only for the current state of the economy where both soft and hard data have been deteriorating in recent weeks, but perhaps also for the June rate hike decision, which […]

Trump Effect: ADP Employment Surges Near Most In 6 Years On Record Goods-Producing Job Gains

Following January's surge in employment (biggest gain in 7 months), February's ADP print exploded higher to 298k (5 sigma above all expectations). This is the third biggest monthly employment gain of the expansion. It appears the 'Trump Effect' is the biggest driver as the ADP payroll surge was mostly due to a record surge in […]