Category Archives: Personal Consumption
“I Was Wrong”: Albert Edwards Finds Something That Has Never Happened Before
At the start of the year, we were surprised when SocGen’s Albert “Ice Age” Edwards, the biggest perma-deflationist on Wall Street, flipped his outlook on the US economy, and said he now expected a fast spike in inflation driven by wage growth, which in turn would prompt an even more accelerated tightening cycle by the […]
“It’s Time For Markets To Catch On” – Central Bankers Warn ‘Investors Are Too Complacent’
Authored by Lena Komileva, originally posted at The Financial Times, The US Federal Reserve raised rates for the third time in six months in June, even though inflation had stayed below its 2 per cent target for much of the past decade. Why? The justification lies with the return to “economic normalisation” (a more normal […]
How Big Of A “Deleveraging” Are We Talking About?
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Last week, I discussed the issue of debt and why “people buy payments.” This article generated much discussion and several emails including the following. “You argue that rising debt levels lead to slower economic growth, but what if it is slower growth leading to rising debt levels?” This is […]
Yellen’s Dovish Turn: Concerned About Inflation, Sees Little Room For Rate Increases
Fed Chair Janet Yellen's prepared remarks confirm her previous stance that they will keep normalizing their policy stance (no matter what), bringing forward the timeline for unwinding the balance sheet, and adding that "rates won't have to rise much further to get to neutral." This seems like a 'dovish' tilt, and judging by the reaction […]
‘Vice’ Index Shows U.S. Slowdown Ahead
Authored by Andrew Zaitlin via MoneyBallEconomics.com, Slower Spending Growth In Q3 When Vice spending momentum began to slow in February, I blamed near-term noise. I thought it might be tied to February’s tax refund deferral. And when it slowed again in March, I blamed Easter. But vice spending growth continues to slow. In fact, in the […]
UMich Confidence Shows Partisan Divide Widest Ever But All Agree It’s Time To Sell Your House
UMich confidence is stable at its post-Trump plateau for now, but the partisan divide between Republicans (robust economic growth ahead) and Democrats (recession looms) has never been wider. However, one thing they all agree on is that for the first time since the peak of the housing market in 2006, home-buyers are negative on home […]
Global Rally Fizzles After “OPEC Shock” In “Slow Risk-Off Session”
S&P futures were fractionally lower from yesterday’s record high as European stocks declined and Asian stocks were mixed, pressured by yesterday’s 5% plunge in crude after OPEC unexpectedly “failed to surprise” markets, and announced the bare minimum supply cut extension that was expected by oil traders, who in turn puked long positions. It wasn’t just […]