Category Archives: Personal Consumption
Key Events In The Last Week Before Christmas
It might be the last full week before Christmas – with both newsflow and trading volumes set to slide substantially – but there’s still a few interesting events and data releases to look forward to next week. Among the relatively sparse data releases schedule, we get US GDP, core PCE, housing and durable goods orders […]
Watch Live: Janet Yellen Makes Final Appearance Before Congress
With only three weeks left until her final meeting as chairwoman of the FOMC, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen today will make what's expected to be her final appearance before Congress when she delivers testimony to the Joint Economic Committee. The Fed was already widely expected to raise interest rates next month, but in case there […]
“I Was Wrong”: Albert Edwards Finds Something That Has Never Happened Before
At the start of the year, we were surprised when SocGen’s Albert “Ice Age” Edwards, the biggest perma-deflationist on Wall Street, flipped his outlook on the US economy, and said he now expected a fast spike in inflation driven by wage growth, which in turn would prompt an even more accelerated tightening cycle by the […]
“It’s Time For Markets To Catch On” – Central Bankers Warn ‘Investors Are Too Complacent’
Authored by Lena Komileva, originally posted at The Financial Times, The US Federal Reserve raised rates for the third time in six months in June, even though inflation had stayed below its 2 per cent target for much of the past decade. Why? The justification lies with the return to “economic normalisation” (a more normal […]
How Big Of A “Deleveraging” Are We Talking About?
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Last week, I discussed the issue of debt and why “people buy payments.” This article generated much discussion and several emails including the following. “You argue that rising debt levels lead to slower economic growth, but what if it is slower growth leading to rising debt levels?” This is […]
Yellen’s Dovish Turn: Concerned About Inflation, Sees Little Room For Rate Increases
Fed Chair Janet Yellen's prepared remarks confirm her previous stance that they will keep normalizing their policy stance (no matter what), bringing forward the timeline for unwinding the balance sheet, and adding that "rates won't have to rise much further to get to neutral." This seems like a 'dovish' tilt, and judging by the reaction […]
‘Vice’ Index Shows U.S. Slowdown Ahead
Authored by Andrew Zaitlin via MoneyBallEconomics.com, Slower Spending Growth In Q3 When Vice spending momentum began to slow in February, I blamed near-term noise. I thought it might be tied to February’s tax refund deferral. And when it slowed again in March, I blamed Easter. But vice spending growth continues to slow. In fact, in the […]