Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Rate of Change

Spot The Horse

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, Yesterday after writing my piece about Tesla and Bitcoin, I received an email from one of the smartest guys I know. “Funny that you wrote about shorting Elon’s science project and GBTC. I just bought both this morning. Thanks for the extra liquidity. Always appreciative of […]

“Someone Is Blowing Up”: RBC Warns China-Induced Unwinds Are Escalating

"Something is off," warns RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott in the introduction to his latest market noting that the swing in US fiscal policy optimism is coming at a critical time as the China's liquidity tightening is spooking the reflation story. SUMMARY: Movement on US fiscal policy is currently driving US rates and […]

“Think 1999”: Morgan Stanley Sees Huge 30% Surge In Stocks “Investors Cannot Afford To Miss”

With Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker having left the investment bank to continue his career at Eminence Capital, it was up to his replacement, Michael Wilson to come up with the Initiation of coverage report for the “Classic Late Cycle.” So, in keeping a stiff upper lip, and breaking away from the gloom that appears to […]

20 Trillion in Government Debt Means No Lifeline for Caterpillar`s Declining Revenues

By EconMatters The real problem for Caterpillar is that China is no longer going to build a new city every month, the commodity super cycles are over for a long time given the global debt overhang, and don`t expect Trump Infrastructure Projects to save the day for CAT, as the United States has its own […]

Raoul Pal Warns The Day Of Reckoning Looms For VIX Shorts: “Reminds Me Of Portfolio Insurance In 1987”

ubmitted by Patrick Ceresna via,   In a podcast interview on MacroVoices, Macro Guru Raoul Pal makes some comments on some of the biggest imbalances in the markets today.  He compares the VIX contango trade to the portfolio insurance problem that was blamed for the 1987 crash… they don't realize the rate of change […]

Nuclear Arms Race + Infrastructure + Trump = Inflation

Last year, Mack Research compiled a five-part series (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) on the inflation situation in the United States.  We tried to create a holistic view by addressing inflation from a number of different vantage points: commodity prices, unit labor costs, velocity of money, TIPs and the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index […]

Job Market Rolling Over: Rate Of Hiring Declines At Fastest Pace Since 2013

On Wednesday the BLS reported Janet Yellen's favorite labor market indicator, the JOLTS survey, which as expected (since it tracked the modestly weaker October payrolls) showed that in October, the number of job opening dropped from the upward revised September print 5.631 million to 5.534 million, down some 97,000, if modestly better than the 5.5 […]

The Bull Giveth, The Bear Taketh, & You’re Not Passive

Submitted by Lance Roberts via, Over the last several months, in particular, the number of articles discussing the shift from “active management” to “passive indexing” have surged. I get it. The market seems to be immune to decline. It is effectively the final evolution of “bull market psychology” as investors capitulate to the “if […]

Peak Autos, Peak Oil, & Peak Nasdaq

Submitted by Lance Roberts via, Are Auto Sales Really All That Strong? The media was especially excited yesterday regarding the release of the auto sales data. To wit: “US auto sales were higher than expected in September after automakers offered a record amount in incentives to buyers.   According to Autodata, sales reached a seasonally […]

Why ‘Wishful Thinking’ Has Trapped The Fed

Submitted by Lance Roberts via, Wishful Thinking The confusion at the Fed continues as Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams painted an upbeat picture of the U.S. economy in a speech on Tuesday. This, of course, comes despite recent disappointing data on both the employment and economic fronts. “The economy is in […]