Silver as an investment

Category Archives: reflation

Natixis Warns, US Economy Will “Slow Down Substantially” In 2018

As US GDP growth rises at 3% or more for the second quarter in a row, French investment bank Natixis urges investors to prepare for the U.S. economy to "slow down substantially" as early as 2018. Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis, warned that the current level of corporate investment is "abnormally high" and suggested […]

“I Was Wrong”: Albert Edwards Finds Something That Has Never Happened Before

At the start of the year, we were surprised when SocGen’s Albert “Ice Age” Edwards, the biggest perma-deflationist on Wall Street, flipped his outlook on the US economy, and said he now expected a fast spike in inflation driven by wage growth, which in turn would prompt an even more accelerated tightening cycle by the […]

Euro, Bund Yields Extend Spike After Hawkish Draghi Shocks Markets

Draghi's overly-optimistic expectations for growth were taken as hawkish by the markets and earlier weakness in Bunds (yields spiking) and strength in EUR (surging to 2-week highs) have continued… As we noted earelier, speaking at the ECB's annual policy forum, Draghi highlighted a recovering euro zone economy that “the threat of deflation is gone and […]

Fading Further and Further Back Toward 2016 / by Jeffrey P. Snider via Alhambra Investments / June 20, 2017 Earlier this month, the BEA estimated that Disposable Personal Income in the US was $14.4 trillion (SAAR) for April 2017. If the unemployment rate were truly 4.3% as the BLS says, there is no way DPI would be anywhere near to that low level. It would instead […]

“Peak China”: Chinese Data Misses Across The Board As Housing Bubble Returns

Following months of warnings that China’s economy is slowing down as a result of not only a collapse in China’s credit impulse but also tighter monetary conditions, as well as rolling over loan growth which has pressured both CPI and PPI – i.e., the global “reflation trade” – as the following chart from Bloomberg’s David […]

“Someone Is Blowing Up”: RBC Warns China-Induced Unwinds Are Escalating

"Something is off," warns RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott in the introduction to his latest market noting that the swing in US fiscal policy optimism is coming at a critical time as the China's liquidity tightening is spooking the reflation story. SUMMARY: Movement on US fiscal policy is currently driving US rates and […]

Global Reflation Trade In Trouble: Chinese Economic Data Plunges To 6-Month Lows As New Orders Dry Up / by Tyler Durden / Apr 29, 2017 New Orders for Manufacturing and Services sectors of the economy tumbled to their lowest levels in at least 6 months, weighing down both PMIs to their lowest levels since October 2016. After Q1’s record surge in new credit creation, it appears the rapid tightening in China’s financial conditions […]

Gold Surges, USDJPY, Yields Slide As Markets Finally Respond To Latest Set Of Economic, Geopolitical Shocks

With markets shut on Good Friday, even as the one-two knockout punch of the worst monthly core CPI print in 7 years hit… … coupled with a miss in March retail sales, which suffered their biggest two month drop in 2 years…   … on Sunday night traders were desperate to catch up, or rather […]

As Stocks Sink, This Is What RBC Is Looking For / by Tyler Durden / Apr 11, 2017 1:35 PM Despite the panicky “reverse engines!” dynamic last Friday in the US rates market – with popular “reflation” trade expressions (which had been seeing vicious unwinds) suddenly breathing new life as Fed’s Dudley clarified his “misconstrued” comments on “little pause” with short-term rates hiking –  RBC’s head of […]

Saxo Warns Reflation Trade Ends In Q2 With “Healthy Correction” / by Tyler Durden / Apr 11, 2017 11:25 AM The reflation trade that started before Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections accelerated in Q1 as global economic data improved and surprised against expectations. Global equities are up 6.5% in dollar terms with markets such as Hong Kong, emerging markets, and Brazil the clear outperformers. […]