Category Archives: Richmond Fed
Asian Stocks Slide On iPhone X Demand Fears; US Futures Flat In Thin Holiday Trading
For the second day in a row, most Asian markets – at least the ones that are open – were dragged lower by tech stocks and Apple suppliers, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.2% led by Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in response to the previously noted report that Apple will slash […]
The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018
One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]
Richmond Fed Survey Unexpectedly Spikes To Record High – Beats By 16 Standard Deviations
WTF! While other 'soft' survey data has been disappointing recently, The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Outlook did not… in fact, against expectations of a 14 print, following a 12 print in October, November printed 30! – 16 standard deviations above expectations. This is an all-time record high for the survey… Despite a major spike […]
July Payrolls Preview: Smooth Sailing But Watch Out For Cars
At 8:30am on Friday, the BLS is expected to announce that in July the US created 180K jobs, down from 222K in June though still in line with the 6-month average of 180K, with the biggest downside risk a slowdown in durable manufacturing payrolls as auto production slumped. Sellside expectations: UBS: 175K Barclays: 175K HSBC: […]
Goldman: The Fed Will Hike This Week, But Here Are “The Two Most Interesting Questions”
On Wedensday the FOMC will hike rates by another 25 bps – an event which the Fed Funds market prices in with near virtual certainty, while Goldman calls the rate increase “extremely likely” – and only a “tail” event like an extremely weak CPI report on Wednesday morning, hours ahead of the Fed announcement, has […]
Key Events In The Coming Week: Thursday Turmoil Trifecta
This week will be all about rhe “Thursday Turmoil Trifecta” when the UK general election will be highlight of a busy week together with the ECB monetary policy meeting, while rounding off events in the US will be James Comey’s first public testimony since he was fired by Donald Trump in which he is expected […]