Category Archives: Richmond Fed

Asian Stocks Slide On iPhone X Demand Fears; US Futures Flat In Thin Holiday Trading

By silveristhenew | Published December 26, 2017

For the second day in a row, most Asian markets – at least the ones that are open – were dragged lower by tech stocks and Apple suppliers, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.2% led by Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in response to the previously noted report that Apple will slash […]

Also posted in Apple, Australia, Bitcoin, Bloomberg Dollar Spot, British Pound, business, China, Communist party, Consumer Prices, CPI, Currency, Dallas Fed, Debt Ceiling, Dow 30, Dubai, Economic consequences of the 2006 Thai coup d'état, Economy, Economy of the United States, Euro, European Union, Federal Government, finance, flash, Foreign Exchange Market, Hang Seng 40, Hong Kong, International finance, Italy’s parliament, Japan, KIM, Monetary Policy, MSCI Asia Pacific, New Zealand, Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries, Reuters, S&P 500, S&P/ASX 200, Shenzhen, SSE 50, Stock Market Crashes, Tax Revenue, U.S. Dollar Index, US Federal Reserve, Yen | Tagged Federal Reserve, north korea | Comments Off

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

By silveristhenew | Published December 18, 2017

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]

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Richmond Fed Survey Unexpectedly Spikes To Record High – Beats By 16 Standard Deviations

By silveristhenew | Published November 28, 2017

WTF! While other 'soft' survey data has been disappointing recently, The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Outlook did not… in fact, against expectations of a 14 print, following a 12 print in October, November printed 30! – 16 standard deviations above expectations. This is an all-time record high for the survey… Despite a major spike […]

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Full Preview Of Tomorrow’s “Historic” FOMC Meeting

By silveristhenew | Published September 19, 2017

It is virtually guaranteed that tomorrow the FOMC will make history by officially announcing the Fed’s plan to begin shrinking its balance sheet through the gradual phasing out of bond reinvestments, which however in a world in which other central banks continue to pump $125 billion per month, will hardly by noticed by markets at […]

Also posted in banking, Barclays, Bond, business, central bank, Central Banks, CPI, Credit Suisse, Debt Ceiling, Economy, FED, Federal funds rate, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve System, Fed’s Board of Governors, financial services, fomc, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, money, Morgan Stanley, Neel Kashkari, NY FED, Open market operation, Personal Consumption, RANSquawk, senate, William Dudley | Tagged goldman sachs, Unemployment | Comments Off

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On The (Jackson) Hole

By silveristhenew | Published August 21, 2017

Absent any major geopolitical shocks, it is set to be a quiet summer week ahead with focus on the Jackson Hole conference. On the data front the key releases will be US durable goods and Eurozone PMIs, as well as Japan inflation & UK and Norway GDP. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings […]

Also posted in Barclays, business, Case-Shiller, Chicago Fed, Chicago Fed national activity, Consumer Confidence, Continuing Claims, Dallas Fed, Dallas Federal Reserve, Economy, Economy of the European Union, Euro, europe, European Central Bank, European Union, Eurozone, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, flash, Germany, Gross Domestic Product, Hungary, Initial Jobless Claims, Italy, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jim Reid, Kansas City Fed, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Kazakhstan, Markit, Monetary Policy, New Home Sales, Norway, Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries, Permian Basin Petroleum Association, Real-time gross settlement, S&P/Case, TARGET2, US Federal Reserve, Volatility | Tagged Federal Reserve, france, north korea | Comments Off

July Payrolls Preview: Smooth Sailing But Watch Out For Cars

By silveristhenew | Published August 3, 2017

At 8:30am on Friday, the BLS is expected to announce that in July the US created 180K jobs, down from 222K in June though still in line with the 6-month average of 180K, with the biggest downside risk a slowdown in durable manufacturing payrolls as auto production slumped. Sellside expectations: UBS: 175K Barclays: 175K HSBC: […]

Also posted in BLS, business, Causes of unemployment in the United States, Chicago PMI, Conference Board, Continuing Claims, Dallas Fed, Economics, Economy, Full Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, Labor, Labour economics, Labour law, Markit, minimum wage, New York Fed, nonfarm payrolls, Philly Fed, RANSquawk, Recession, Unemployment in the United States, Unemployment Insurance, US central bank, US Federal Reserve | Tagged goldman sachs, Unemployment | Comments Off

S&P Futures Bounce As VIX Hammered, Europe “Euphoric”

By silveristhenew | Published July 25, 2017

After sliding to 3 month lows on “car cartel” concerns yesterday, European stocks have rebounded after three days of declines, while oil extended gains after Saudi export cuts, with Brent rising above $49 and WTI just shy of $47. Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rose 0.2% to 2,473, putting yesterday’s GOOGL drop on plunging […]

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June Payrolls Preview: With The Fed On Autopilot, You Can Skip This One

By silveristhenew | Published July 6, 2017

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, then another debacle in May, the June payrolls report due at 8:30am will be… very much irrelevant, because as Citi pointed out earlier, the Fed is now data-independent and will keep hiking until financial conditions finally tighten (read: stocks drop). In other words, with […]

Also posted in "Jobless Claims", Barclays, business, Chicago Fed, Conference Board, Consumer Confidence, Continuing Claims, CPI, Dallas Fed, Economic indicator, Economy, Economy of the United States, employment, Employment Situation Report, Federal Fund, Full Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, Kansas City Fed, Labor, Labour law, macroeconomics, Market Conditions, Markit, Monetary Policy, Moving Averages, New York Fed, Non-manufacturing ISM, nonfarm payrolls, NY FED, Payroll, Philly Fed, RANSquawk, Trump Administration, Unemployment in the United States, Unemployment Insurance, US Federal Reserve | Tagged Unemployment | Comments Off

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike This Week, But Here Are “The Two Most Interesting Questions”

By silveristhenew | Published June 11, 2017

On Wedensday the FOMC will hike rates by another 25 bps – an event which the Fed Funds market prices in with near virtual certainty, while Goldman calls the rate increase “extremely likely” – and only a “tail” event like an extremely weak CPI report on Wednesday morning, hours ahead of the Fed announcement, has […]

Also posted in Atlanta Fed, business, Chicago Fed, Core CPI, CPI, Debt Ceiling, Disinflation, economic policy, Economy, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, inflation, James B. Bullard, Jan Hatzius, Macroeconomic policy, macroeconomics, March FOMC, Minneapolis Fed, Monetary Policy, money, New York Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Quantitative Easing, Recession, San Francisco Fed, US Federal Reserve, Yield Curve | Tagged John Williams, Unemployment | Comments Off

Key Events In The Coming Week: Thursday Turmoil Trifecta

By silveristhenew | Published June 5, 2017

This week will be all about rhe “Thursday Turmoil Trifecta” when the UK general election will be highlight of a busy week together with the ECB monetary policy meeting, while rounding off events in the US will be James Comey’s first public testimony since he was fired by Donald Trump in which he is expected […]

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