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Category Archives: World oil market chronology from

US Oil Rig Count Surges Most In 5 Months

Tracking the lagged rebound in WTI prices, the US oil rig count rose by 9 this week – the biggest weekly rise since June.     And with production at record highs, we suspect OPEC will need to jawbone some more…   And total US Crude output just hit a new record high…

US Oil Rig Count Drops Most Since May 2016 To 5-Month Lows

The number of US oil rigs contonues to track the lagged price of WTI (lower). For the 4th week in the last 5 (and 10th of last 12), oil rigs declined (down 8 to 729). This is the biggest absolute rig count drop since May 2016 to the lowest total rig count since May 2017.

WTI Shrugs Despite Huge Crude Draw

A v-shaped recovery in WTI/RBOB today (amid a dollar reversal at the EU close and chatter about a big crude draw) led prices higher into the API print (but after last week's 100% incorrect API vs DOE reversal, who knows what it means). And the rumors were true – a huge crude draw (biggest in […]

OPEC Boosts Oil Demand Estimates, Admits Oil Prices Can’t Rise Above $55

In its latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (October) the oil cartel has increased its oil demand estimates for 2017, 2018 on strengthening world economy, and weaker outlook for supplies from its rivals. Specifically, OPEC forecasts that based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, demand for OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.8 […]

WTI Tumbles Below $50 To 3-Week Lows

On the heels of continued dollar strength, output increases by OPEC (and US production at 2 year highs), and Libya restarting its biggest oilfield, WTI prices are tumbling for the 3rd time this week, back below $50 to their lowest in 3 weeks… As Bloomberg notes, while oil rallied into a bull market last month on the […]

Is Another Oil Head-Fake Coming?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, The dramatic declines in the costs of oil production will be boosting supply at the very moment that demand is falling. Over the past decade I've addressed what I call Head-Fakes in the cost of oil/fossil fuel: even though we know the cost of extracting and processing […]

Rig Count Rises By Just 2 As Goldman Expects Oil Market To Rebalance By Early 2018

With WTI heading for its best week since 2016, demand and inventory data is trumping production for now and today's Baker Hughes rig count data did nothing to change that as, following last week's 1 rig drop, producers only added 2 oil rigs in the last week to 766. *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 6 […]

Junk Bonds Are Finally Starting To Care About Oil

Back in May, we pointed out an interesting observation made by Goldman: unlike late 2015 and most of 2016, when equities demonstrated surprising resilience to the swoon in oil prices, in 2017 OPEC’s failure to stabilize oil prices finally hit energy equities disproportionately.  As Goldman said in mid-May, discussing the latest crude oil selloff, which […]

“When The Facts Change”- Oil’s Biggest Cheerleader Capitulates: Andy Hall’s Full Bearish Letter

After years of being oil’s biggest cheerleader, “oil god” Andy Hall, who starting with the OPEC Thanksgiving massacre in 2014 has had several abysmal years, in the process losing the bulk of his AUM, finally threw in the towel last week when in a July 3 letter to investors, he admitted that “the facts have changed” […]

Is ‘Oil God’ Andy Hall The Latest Victim Of “Fake News”?

Raymond James' J. Marshall Adkins invoked one of President Trump's favorite phrases to explain oil's plunge, and to excuse his bullish bias (that crude can rise to as much as $65 a barrel). As Bloomberg notes, conventional wisdom holds that resilient U.S. shale drilling, underwhelming progress towards OPEC’s goal in slimming global oil inventories, and […]