Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Yield Curve

Bank Stocks Stumble To 1-Month Lows As Yield Curve Slumps Post-Fed

Not sure why but this seemed appropriate after listening to the drivel from Washington (and Fed speakers) all day…   Bonds and Bullion the big winners post-Fed…   There were 3 notable legs lower in stocks today… The catalysts seemed to be 1335ET – *EVANS SEES MORE UPSIDE POSSIBILITY IN UNCERTAINTY FACING FED, THIS IS […]

Rate Hike Hammers Dollar; Stocks, Bonds, & Bullion Soar

Before we start, we want to point out that if the Atlanta Fed GDPNOW forecast of 0.9% for Q1 is correct, this will be the weakest economic backdrop for the economy for a rate hike since 1980!! (according to Bloomberg data).   All we can say is…   The reaction post-Fed was dramatic to say […]

25 Years Of March Market Madness

It's not called 'The Ides of March' for nothing… Wedbush Securities' Scott Skyrm reminds us: Over the past 20 years, there was a series of market sell-offs during the month of March.   In 1998, it was the subject of a news story on CNBC. They claimed it's a combination of the market digesting the […]

“Anything Can Happen” – Is Now The Time To ‘Fade The Fed’?

Via Kevin Muir of The Macro Tourist blog, Last week’s hawkish Federal Reserve guidance sent the front end of the yield curve for a tailspin. In the process, the odds of a March hike went from less than 50% to almost 100%. The movement in the Fed funds futures curve was swift and vicious. The […]

The World’s Most Deceptive Chart

Via Lance Roberts of, I received an email last week which I thought was worth discussing. “I just found your site and began reading the backlog of posts on the importance of managing risk and avoiding draw downs. However, the following chart would seem to counter that argument. In the long-term, bear markets seem harmless […]

Bank Of America Sets A Date For The Market’s “Great Fall”

With the US stock market likely to continue its levitation today, it means that by close of trading, the S&P500 will be above 2,400, the same as Goldman’s year end price target, and 100 points away from Bank of America’s “euphoric blow off top” destination, which is also known as Michael Hartnett’s Icarus Trade. In […]

Dow Dumps Below 21,000 As Fed Hawks Batter Bonds & Bullion

So after the biggest inflows to SPY in 27 months sending stocks soaring on dropping volume and plunging GDP expectations, today saw Stocks Down, Bonds Down, Gold Down, VIX Down, USD Up, Rate Hike Odds Up… But it was all so easy yesterday! Rate hike odds soared to 90%… (Powell joined the crowd today following […]

Yield Curve Collapse & The Fed’s “Surprising Economic Strength”

As Lael Brainard piled on The Fed's sudden utter hawkishness, following Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, and Williams, we noticed a common thread behind the need to hike rates in March – each implicitly or explicitly noted America's "surprisingly strong economy." This led to a stunning WTF moment… What's wrong with this chart? To explain in simple […]

Swap Spreads Surge To 5-Year Highs As Debt Ceiling Despair Strikes

It appears David Stockman's warnings over the looming debt ceiling debacle has sparked some investors to face up to reality once again. The Treasury-Bill yield curve has inverted further and swap spreads soared to five-year highs. The difference between 2-year swap rates and Treasury yields has widened back to 37.5 basis points which is the […]

“There’s Something Weird Going On”: Jeff Snider On The Global Dollar Shortage

The first time we explained that one of the biggest risks facing a world in which the dollar is the reserve currency is a global USD shortage, was in mid-2009, when we wrote “How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World.” At the time, the IMF calculated that just ahead of the financial crisis, “major […]