Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Yield Curve

Banks Battered, Biotechs Best As Yield Curve Crashes To 10-Year Lows

Tech investors the last 2 days…   Lots of chatter again this week about shrinking The Fed's balance sheet… it's gonna happen no matter what and it is looming… so The fed will be shrinking at $20-50bn a month going forward, will The ECB or BOJ step up and increase their buying to keep the […]

One Trader Is Stunned By The “Staggering” Confusion In The Market

Wherever one looks there are disconnects… between bonds and stocks, between risk and uncertainty, between hope and reality. But, as former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, most critically, there is a divergence between data and Fed actions, and this time is different as central banks appear to have shifted into 'whatever it takes' to tighten […]

China ‘Rescues’ Bond Market In Symbolic Move But Yield Curve Remains Inverted

For the 10th day in a row, China's bond yield curve remains inverted (the longest in history). With yields at 3-year highs, corporate bond issuance is evaporating, and has now emerged as the latest major, and most imminent, threat facing China's financial sector and $10 trillion corporate debt market. However, it appears Chinese authorities have […]

“Not Off The Lows” – Oilmageddon Sinks Stocks As Treasury Curve Crashes To 10-Year Lows

Tough day for some…   A bloodbath in the oil patch as WTI entered a bear market, hit a $42 handle and tumbled to the lowest levels since Nov 2016…   That weighed on Trannies the most but selling pressure was abundant… and the absence of dip-buyers was clear (as central bank balance sheet shrank […]

Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy, Economic Outlook Unchanged

As expected by all 43 economists who estimate such things, the Bank of Japan left their policy mix unchanged and in a desperate bid to appear modestly positive about how things are going, maintained that "Japan's economy has been turning toward a moderate expansion," adding that that consumer spending "increased its resilience." Hardly a rousing […]

We Are Getting Very Close To An Inverted Yield Curve – And If That Happens A Recession Is Essentially Guaranteed

If something happens seven times in a row, do you think that there is a pretty good chance that it will happen the eighth time too?  Immediately prior to the last seven recessions, we have seen an inverted yield curve, and it looks like it is about to happen again for the very first time […]

“FOMC Drift” In Full Effect As Global Stocks Rise; S&P Futures Hit New Record; Oil Slides

With last Friday’s “tech wreck” now a distant memory, this morning the “FOMC Drift” described yesterday, which “guarantees” higher stock prices and a lower dollar heading into the Fed announcement is in full effect, with European and Asian stocks rising for a second day, led by rebounding tech shares, while S&P futures are modestly in […]

“Fire” in the Bond Market – Fed Raising Rates and US Issuing Ultra Long Bonds – by Michael Carino

  The bond market is on fire and you are about to get burned!!!  Bond yields are lower and interest spreads as tight or tighter than that of the bond market crisis of 2008.  This will lead to a catastrophic financial train wreck that can happen at any moment.  Why do I feel like I’m […]

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike This Week, But Here Are “The Two Most Interesting Questions”

On Wedensday the FOMC will hike rates by another 25 bps – an event which the Fed Funds market prices in with near virtual certainty, while Goldman calls the rate increase “extremely likely” – and only a “tail” event like an extremely weak CPI report on Wednesday morning, hours ahead of the Fed announcement, has […]

The US Unemployment Rate Is Now Below The Average Recession “Entry Point”

Submitted by Eric Hickman of Kessler Companies We have begun to see the ‘event-horizon’ (Lance Roberts) of an economic slowdown in several indicators. Adding to that, and counter-intuitively perhaps, an unemployment rate this low (4.29%) is a signal to run-away from Stocks and run-to Treasuries. Historically, unemployment rate lows have occurred at, or very near-to, […]