Silver as an investment

Category Archives: Yield Curve

“It’s Time For Markets To Catch On” – Central Bankers Warn ‘Investors Are Too Complacent’

Authored by Lena Komileva, originally posted at The Financial Times, The US Federal Reserve raised rates for the third time in six months in June, even though inflation had stayed below its 2 per cent target for much of the past decade. Why? The justification lies with the return to “economic normalisation” (a more normal […]

Crude Crashes, Bonds Bid, & Trannies Turmoil But VIX Vanquished To 9 Handle Again

With oil crashing, 'hard' economic data slumping, political chaos ahead of the debt ceiling debacle, and The Fed about to embark on something no central bank has ever done (let alone done successfully), it should be no surprise that earnings expectations are being ramped exponentially higher and The Dow (thanks in large part to Boeing […]

July Jolts: Tech Tops, Trannies Trounced, Dollar Demolished, & VIX Vaporized

Just seemed appropriate…   July was a month of extremes across asset classes… Nasdaq Composite surged over 3.5% – best month since Feb 2017 (up 11 of last 13 months) FANG Stocks spiked 10% – best month since Oct 2015 (up 11 of last 13 months) Dow Transports tumbled over 3.5% – worst month since […]

John Mauldin: “One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Trigger A Global Recession”

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis. By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. Yet, most of my […]

With LIBOR Dead, $400 Trillion In Assets Are Stuck In Limbo

In an unexpected announcement, earlier this week the U.K.’s top regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority which is tasked with overseeing Libor, announced that the world’s most important, and manipulated, benchmark rate will be phased out by 2021, catching countless FX, credit, derivative, and other traders by surprise because while much attention had been given to […]

Bank of America: “Tick Tock”

The drums of doom from BofA’s Michael Hartnett (most notorious for his recent prediction of when “the Fed will crash the market“, and warning that “The Most Dangerous Moment For Markets Will Come In 3 Or 4 Months“) are beating louder, and in his latest Flow Show report titled “Tick Tock”, he doubles down on […]

3-Month Treasury-Bill Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since Lehman On Debt-Ceiling Concerns

It seems Morgan Stanely was right when they said "the debt ceiling worries us most," as today's 3-month T-Bill auction surprised the market with its highest yield since the fall of 2008, as investors continue to price concerns that the U.S. government will exhaust its borrowing authority around mid-October. As SMRA details: The 3-month bill […]

David Rosenberg: “This Is The Single Most Important Thing For The Market Over The Next Decade”

Several years ago, Gluskin Sheff’s superstar economist (previously at Merrill), David Rosenberg (in)famously flipped from bear to bull, predicting what amounts to a victory for the Fed: a jump in (wage) inflation, a burst in economic growth, and an overall selloff in that most deflation-dependent asset, the US Treasury. None of those happened, and while […]

World Stocks Hit Record High For 10th Consecutive Day In “No-Vol Nirvana”

The relentless risk levitation continued overnight, as global shares extended their record high stretch on Thursday for a 10th consecutive day after a cautious BOJ lifted Asian stocks to a decade high with a dovish announcement that offered no surprises, while pushing back Kuroda’s 2% inflation target to 2020, the 6th consecutive delay. With all […]

“ECB Or Not To Be”: A Preview Of What Mario Draghi Will Say

Looking at today’s main event, the much anticipated ECB announcement in which Draghi may (or may not) announce a hawkish shift to the cental bank’s policies and/or reveal the bank’s tapering plans, Citi (whose titled we borrowed) gives the 30 second summary, and says that the market seems quite split on whether the ECB will […]