Silver as an investment

Category Archives: yield

“They Are Sleepwalking Into A Major Correction”: One Trader Expects A Violent Move In Bunds

With many expecting long-yield to continue declining no matter what, and how many hikes, the Fed and central banks do on the short end, Tommi Utoslahti, a former derivatives trader and analyst and currently one of Bloomberg’s Global Macro squawkers, disagrees and as he writes in his latest Markets Live note below, expects a violent […]

US Yield Curve Crashes Most In 6 Years As Stocks, Bitcoin Hit Record Highs

What could go wrong?   Small Caps exploded higher today, driven by financials, presumably on tax reform hype.. but after Bob Corker said "yes" there was some notable "sell the news"… Notably, as soon as the cash market closed, futures ripped to the highs of the day…   On the week, Nasdaq (green) and Dow […]

Gold Pops As Bitcoin Drops, Dollar Snaps Longest Win Streak Since Jan 2016

"Contained"…   Post-FOMC, Gold was the biggest gainer…   US Equities were holding to gains but tumbled in the last few minutes with the S&P turning red…   Nasdaq manged to hold gains after The Fed…   VIX was noisy around CPI early on and snapped higher into the close (breaking above the terrifying level […]

Copper Crash And Yield Curve Carnage As Tech, Trannies, & TBTFs All Tumble

Today was a day in the upside-down: Banks underperformed Tech; High tax underperformed Low tax; Momo outperformed Value; Nasdaq outperformed S&P; and VIX down with stocks down…   While Nasdaq (green) outperformed on the day, and was bid at the open, Trannies (blue) underperformed; note that as Europe closed, everything rolled over….   Only Trannies […]

BMO Sees Risk Of Curve Inverting “As Early As March 2018”

Over the weekend, we published an analysis from Citigroup looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors “have to worry.”  The results were interesting: as Citi wrote, while sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, “where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX”, […]

You Know It’s Late In The Cycle When The Yield Curve Starts Generating Headlines

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, The yield curve is one of those indicators that most people have heard of but few can explain. In part this is because it’s usually a non-issue, only becoming important enough to argue about during the final year of long expansions. Like now: Yield curve flattening maintains relentless momentum […]

Stocks Hit Record Highs As Tax Hype Trumps Nuclear Doomsday Fears

Wholesale inventories plunge and Kim shoots off some missiles… but Powell panders to TBTF banks and GOP pushes tax bill = so buy mortimer buy…   Overnight saw The National Team step in and save China…   But today's market action was dominated by the usual opening idiocy, tax-reform headlines, Jerome Powell comments, and North […]

Is This The Real Reason Why The Treasury Curve Has Been Collapsing For A Month?

A 'funny' thing happened a month ago. The Treasury yield curve suddenly started to collapse… despite gains in stocks and positive economi data surprises… the question is, why? Here's one possible reason why.. Originally submitted by GovTrader, TL/DR: Tax reform creates pension fund incentive to buy 30yr bonds NOW. Currently, the top corp tax rate […]

Gresham’s Law

Authored by Ted Rivelle via TCW.com, This year’s Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Richard Thaler, a pioneer of behavioral economics. But there is a tale told by a lesser known Nobel laureate, Kenneth Arrow. As a World War II weather officer, he was tasked with analyzing the reliability of the army’s long-range weather […]

Treasury Yield Curve Crashes To New 10Y Lows After Hotter-Than-Expected PPI

With a December rate-hike baked into the cake (odds as close to 100% as possible), the hotter-than-expected PPI print has sparked notable outperformance in the long-end (amid Fed-driven slowdown fears) sending the yield curve to new cycle flats – flattest since 2007…   The last two times the yield curve was this flat, the US […]