Tag Archives: John Williams

ZeroHedge: The Paul Craig Roberts Dilemma: World War Or The End Of The Dollar

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Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts via The Institute for Political Economy,

Is the US or the World Coming to an End?
It will be one or the other

2014 is shaping up as a year of reckoning for the United States.

Two pressures are building on the US dollar. One pressure comes from the Federal Reserve’s declining ability to rig the price of gold as Western gold supplies shrivel and market knowledge of the Fed’s illegal price rigging spreads. The evidence of massive amounts of naked shorts being dumped into the paper gold futures market at times of day when trading is thin is unequivocal. It has become obvious that the price of gold is being rigged in the futures market in order to protect the dollar’s value from QE.

The other pressure arises from the Obama regime’s foolish threats of sanctions on Russia. Other countries are no longer willing to tolerate Washington’s abuse of the world dollar standard. Washington uses the dollar-based international payments system to inflict damage on the economies of countries that resist Washington’s political hegemony.

Russia and China have had enough. As I have reported and as Peter Koenig reports here http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article38165.htm Russia and China are disconnecting their international trade from the dollar. Henceforth, Russia will conduct its trade, including the sale of oil and natural gas to Europe, in rubles and in the currencies of its BRICS partners. Read more »

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ZeroHedge: Futures Surprise Nobody With Now Mundane Overnight Levitation

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

Being that markets are unrigged and all, at least according to every single proponent of HFT that is, futures have done their overnight levitation as they have every day for the past month driven by the one staple – the Yen carry trade – even if in recent days the broader market slump during the actual daytrading session mostly impacted biotechs yesterday. And since any news is good news, we don’t expect today’s main event, the ECB’s rate announcement and Draghi press conference, both of which are expected to announce nothing new despite Europe’s outright inflationary collapse which most recently dropped to 0.5%, the lowest since 2009.

Incidentally this is the new trend in central bank watching: yesterday JPM pushed back its “imminent” forecast for a BOJ QE boost to July, however adding that Kuroda may just as easily boost QE in May or June. In other words, the new forward guidance paradigm, now that quantiative forward guidance is dead, is don’t do anything rash or stupid, like shorting, because central banks can announce QE any moment. They won’t…. But they could.  And because deflation is a “temporary” phenomenon when it comes to the actual announcement of QE, like with the ECB today, which has jawboned about QE five ways from Sunday meaning it certainly won’t do it, but two to three months down the road, nobody knows, just buy into the manipulated, centrally-planned market like an obedient little Pavlovian dog.

Nikkei 225 (+0.84%) outperformed again, buoyed by another record close in the S&P 500, although reports of a mini-stimulus in China were offset by continued property curbs in Beijing which saw Shanghai Comp settle lower (-0.7%). Also of note, Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 from 55.0 and HSBC Services PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.0. Stocks in Europe gradually edged lower as focus remained firmly on the looming ECB policy announcement, with Bunds also lower following the absorption of supply from Spain and France, both enjoying drop in funding costs.

Read more »

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ZeroHedge: Futures Surprise Nobody With Now Mundane Overnight Levitation

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

Being that markets are unrigged and all, at least according to every single proponent of HFT that is, futures have done their overnight levitation as they have every day for the past month driven by the one staple – the Yen carry trade – even if in recent days the broader market slump during the actual daytrading session mostly impacted biotechs yesterday. And since any news is good news, we don’t expect today’s main event, the ECB’s rate announcement and Draghi press conference, both of which are expected to announce nothing new despite Europe’s outright inflationary collapse which most recently dropped to 0.5%, the lowest since 2009.

Incidentally this is the new trend in central bank watching: yesterday JPM pushed back its “imminent” forecast for a BOJ QE boost to July, however adding that Kuroda may just as easily boost QE in May or June. In other words, the new forward guidance paradigm, now that quantiative forward guidance is dead, is don’t do anything rash or stupid, like shorting, because central banks can announce QE any moment. They won’t…. But they could.  And because deflation is a “temporary” phenomenon when it comes to the actual announcement of QE, like with the ECB today, which has jawboned about QE five ways from Sunday meaning it certainly won’t do it, but two to three months down the road, nobody knows, just buy into the manipulated, centrally-planned market like an obedient little Pavlovian dog.

Nikkei 225 (+0.84%) outperformed again, buoyed by another record close in the S&P 500, although reports of a mini-stimulus in China were offset by continued property curbs in Beijing which saw Shanghai Comp settle lower (-0.7%). Also of note, Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 from 55.0 and HSBC Services PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.0. Stocks in Europe gradually edged lower as focus remained firmly on the looming ECB policy announcement, with Bunds also lower following the absorption of supply from Spain and France, both enjoying drop in funding costs.

Read more »

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ZeroHedge: The Fourteen Year Recession

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”Napoleon Bonaparte

 

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“A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is privately concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men … [W]e have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated, governments in the civilized world—no longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and the duress of small groups of dominant men.”- Woodrow Wilson

When you ponder the implications of allowing a small group of powerful wealthy unaccountable men to control the currency of a nation over the last one hundred years, you understand why our public education system sucks. You understand why the government created Common Core curriculum teaches children that 3 x 4 = 13, as long as you feel good about your answer. George Carlin was right. The owners of this country (bankers, billionaires, corporate titans, politicians) want more for themselves and less for everyone else. They want an educational system that creates ignorant, obedient, vacuous, obese dullards who question nothing, consume mass quantities of corporate processed fast food, gaze at iGadgets, are easily susceptible to media propaganda and compliant to government regulations and directives. They don’t want highly educated, critical thinking, civil minded, well informed, questioning citizens understanding how badly they have been screwed over the last century. I’m sorry to say, your owners are winning in a landslide.

The government controlled public education system has flourished beyond all expectations of your owners. We’ve become a nation of techno-narcissistic, math challenged, reality TV distracted, welfare entitled, materialistic, gluttonous, indebted consumers of Chinese slave labor produced crap. Read more »

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Economist Warns of Collapse Risk: “Will Not Allow Life to Continue As We Know It”

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

theendisnear-wide

shtfplan.com / Mac Slavo / March 7th, 2014

Earlier this week we noted that an invasion of the Ukraine by Vladimir Putin would likely lead to a complete destruction of U.S. stock markets. It’s not so much the invasion force itself, but rather, the economic maneuvers that would come with it should Russia take this course of action.

Well known economist and founder of the Shadow Stats web site John Williams seems to agree. If Russia were to begin unloading US Dollars it would almost instantly lead to a collapse of not only our financial markets, but our entire way of life. And while Russia alone may not have the economic power to single-handedly crush the U.S. economy, if their trading partners and allies like China got into the mix, coupled with front-running investors who may suspect the move is about to happen, it could well be a blood bath on a global scale.

This wouldn’t even be an issue if the U.S. economy were operating at healthy levels, but as Williams notes in the following interview with Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog, it’s anything but:

What you have to keep in mind is that back in 2008 we had one of the greatest financial crises the United States ever faced. The system was on the brink of collapse at that point in time. 

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Thanks to BrotherJohnF

ZeroHedge: The Top 12 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Heading Toward Another Recession

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Is the U.S. economy steamrolling toward another recession?  Will 2014 turn out to be a major "turning point" when we look back on it?  Before we get to the evidence, it is important to note that there are many economists that believe that the United States never actually got out of the last recession.  For example, data compiled by John Williams of shadowstats.com show that the U.S. economy has continually been in recession since 2005. 

So if anyone out there would like to argue that America is experiencing a recession right now, I certainly would not have a problem with that.  In fact, that would fit with the daily reality of tens of millions of Americans that are deeply suffering in this harsh economic environment.  But no matter whether we are in a "recession" at the moment or not, there are an increasing number of indications that we are rapidly plunging into another major economic slowdown.  The following are the top 12 signs that the U.S. economy is heading toward another recession…

#1 We recently learned that the number of new mortgage applications in the United States had fallen to the lowest level that we have seen in nearly 20 years.

Read more »

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The Top 12 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Heading Toward Another Recession

via the economic collapse blog Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

12 SignsIs the U.S. economy steamrolling toward another recession?  Will 2014 turn out to be a major “turning point” when we look back on it?  Before we get to the evidence, it is important to note that there are many economists that believe that the United States never actually got out of the last recession.  For example, data compiled by John Williams of shadowstats.com show that the U.S. economy has continually been in recession since 2005.  So if anyone out there would like to argue that America is experiencing a recession right now, I certainly would not have a problem with that.  In fact, that would fit with the daily reality of tens of millions of Americans that are deeply suffering in this harsh economic environment.  But no matter whether we are in a “recession” at the moment or not, there are an increasing number of indications that we are rapidly plunging into another major economic slowdown.  The following are the top 12 signs that the U.S. economy is heading toward another recession…

#1 We recently learned that the number of new mortgage applications in the United States had fallen to the lowest level that we have seen in nearly 20 years.

#2 Radio Shack has announced that it is going to close more than 1,000 stores.  This is just another sign that we are in the midst of a “retail apocalypse“.

#3 The ISM Services index just fell to its lowest level in 4 years, and ISM Services Employment just experienced its largest decline since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

#4 Obamacare is really starting to hammer the U.S. health care industry

The Affordable Care Act is creating significant financial uncertainty to health care organizations,” said a survey respondent from the health care and social assistance industry.

“With little warning, the negative impact on revenue has been unprecedented.”

#5 Trading revenue at the “too big to fail” banks on Wall Street is way down

Citigroup Inc. (C) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) are bracing investors for a fourth straight drop in first-quarter trading, a period of the year when the largest investment banks typically earn the most from that business.

Citigroup finance chief John Gerspach said yesterday his firm expects trading revenue to drop by a “high mid-teens” percentage, less than a week after JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said revenue from equities and fixed income was down about 15 percent. If trading at the nine largest firms slumps that much, it would extend the slide from 2010’s first quarter to 36 percent.

#6 One of the “too big to fail” banks, JPMorgan, is planning to fire “thousands” more workers.

#7 Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating of the city of Chicago again.  Now it is just three notches above junk status.

#8 The U.S. economy actually lost 2.87 million jobs during the month of January according to the unadjusted numbers.  Over the past decade, the only time the U.S. economy has lost more jobs during the month of January was in 2009 at the peak of the last recession.

#9 In January, real disposable income in the U.S. experienced the largest year over year decline that we have seen since 1974.

#10 Only 35 percent of all Americans say that they are better off financially than they were a year ago.

#11 Global retail sales for machinery giant Caterpillar have fallen for 14 months in a row.

#12 The economic data show that virtually all of the largest economies on the planet are slowing down right now.  The following is from a recent Zero Hedge article

The last 3 weeks have seen the macro fundamentals of the G-10 major economies collapse at the fastest pace in almost 4 years and almost the biggest slump since Lehman. Despite a plethora of data showing that ‘weather’ is not to blame, US strategists, ‘economists’, and asset-gatherers are sticking to the meme that this is all because of the cold on the east coast of the US (and that means wondrous pent-up demand to come). However, as the New York Times reports, for the earth, it was the 4th warmest January on record.

For much more on how the rest of the global economy is also slowing down, please see my recent article entitled “20 Signs That The Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire“.

Meanwhile, things in Ukraine continue to become even more tense, and the Russian government continues to debate how it will respond if the U.S. does end up deciding to hit Russia with economic sanctions.

According to one Russian news source, the Russian parliament is actually considering the confiscation of the property and assets of U.S. businesses in Russia if the U.S. decides to go ahead with economic sanctions against Russia…

The upper house of Russia’s parliament is mulling measures allowing property and assets of European and US companies to be confiscated in the event of sanctions being adopted against Russia over its threatened military intervention in Ukraine.

We are talking about banks, retail chains, mining operations, etc.

U.S. companies have billions invested in Russia, and all of that could be gone in an instant.

So let us certainly hope that economic war between the United States and Russia is averted.  Our economy is hurting enough as it is.

But no matter how things with this crisis in Ukraine play out, it looks like hard times are ahead for the U.S. economy.

Unfortunately, most Americans never learned the lessons that they should have learned back in 2008.

They just assume that the federal government and the Federal Reserve have fixed our problems and have everything under control, so they are not preparing for the next great crisis.

In the end, tens of millions of Americans will be absolutely devastated when they get absolutely blindsided by what is coming.

Time Is Running Out

ZeroHedge: Say’s Law And The Permanent Recession

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

Submitted by Robert Blumen via the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Mainstream media discussion of the macro economic picture goes something like this: “When there is a recession, the Fed should stimulate. We know from history the recovery comes about 12-18 months after stimulus. We stimulated, we printed a lot of money, we waited 18 months. So the economy ipso facto has recovered. Or it’s just about to recover, any time now.”

But to quote the comedian Richard Pryor, “Who ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes?” A Martian economist arriving on earth would have to admit the following: the US economy has experienced zero real growth since 2000. This is what I call the permanent recession. Permanent, because, unlike past downturns — there will be no recovery. To make the case for this view, I will rely on the ideas of several classical and Austrian economists: J.B. Say, James Mill, Mises, Rothbard, W.H. Hutt and Robert Higgs.

I will begin with the J.B. Read more »

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ZeroHedge: No Overnight Levitation In Quiet Markets – Full Recap

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

The positive momentum in equities slowed in Asian trading with losses seen on the Nikkei (-0.4%), and HSCEI , the SCHOMP unchanged and EM indices such as the Nifty (-
0.1%). In Australia, a disappointing December employment report saw a 23k fall in jobs for the month against consensus expectations of rise of 10k. The 10yr Australian government bond has rallied 5bp and the front end is outperforming as a number of investors expect the RBA to continue its easing bias over 2014. AUDUSD has sold off -1.1% to a three year low of 0.881. The ASX200 closed up 1.2% however, boosted by mining-giant Rio Tinto (+2%) who reported better than anticipated Q4 production. Amid recent fears of a Chinese growth deceleration, Rio Tinto reported record levels of production of iron-ore, coal and bauxite. In FX, USDJPY is finding further support in Asia, adding 0.1% to yesterday’s 0.38% gain to trade not too far from the 105 level. Which is also why the S&P futures are trading modestly lower: without a major breakout in the Yen carry, there can’t be a sustained ramp in the US stock market which is driven entirely by the value of the Yen, which in turn is a reflection of the expectations of future BOJ easing.

Stocks in Europe traded lower this morning, with basic materials outperforming following trading update by Rio Tinto, but the focus was on aggressive AUD weakness which was observed overnight following the publication of the latest jobs report. Broad based selling pressure saw AUD/USD fall to its lowest level since August 2010 and in turn depressed investor appetite for precious metals, with spot gold and silver trading lower as a result.

Nevertheless, despite softer metal prices, other UK listed miners opened in the green and given the heavy weighting that commodity names have in the FTSE-100 index ensured that the index outperformed its EU peers. Read more »

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ZeroHedge: The Fed Is Concerned About Small Cap Forward Multiples And Covenant Lite Loans?

Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.

While everyone is focused on any additional clues about the taper and the pace of Fed Flow reduction, perhaps this is the key standout section in today’s Minutes, one that focuses directly on the risk bubble the Fed’s policies have blown.

Participants also reviewed indicators of financial vulnerabilities that could pose risks to financial stability and the broader economy. These indicators generally suggested that such risks were moderate, in part because of the reduction in leverage and maturity transformation that has occurred in the financial sector since the onset of the financial crisis. In their discussion of potential risks, several participants commented on the rise in forward price-to-earnings ratios for some smallcap stocks, the increased level of equity repurchases, or the rise in margin credit. One pointed to the increase in issuance of leveraged loans this year and the apparent decline in the average quality of such loans. A couple of participants offered views on the role of financial stability in monetary policy decision-making more broadly. One proposed that the Committee analyze more explicitly the potential consequences of specific risks to the financial system for its dual-mandate objectives and take account of the possible effects of monetary policy on such risks in its assessment of appropriate policy. Another suggested that the importance of financial stability considerations in the Committee’s deliberations would likely increase over time as progress is made toward the Committee’s objectives, and that such considerations should be incorporated into forward guidance for the federal funds rate and asset purchases.

In other words, the Fed realizes the “importance” of its role in preserving financial stability in the future, specifically one the bubble bursts? Don’t worry though, yesterday none other than SF Fed president John Williams said stocks are undervalued.


    



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