Silver as an investment

Tag Archives: options

“Black Swan” Anxiety Has Never Been Higher

The Fed's Williams warns that they "don't want there to be excesses in financial markets… " Two quick things… The market has almost never been this expensive… As Peter Boockvar warns: "Almost there. S&P 500 price to sales ratio is just 4% from March 2000 peak." And investors have never been more concerned about 'black […]

A Market In Which “Shocks No Longer Shock”: Deutsche’s Kocic Explains How To Trade It

Back in June, one of Wall Street’s more philosophical derivatives strategists, DB’s Aleksandar Kocic looked at the state of the market and postulated that far from “stable” the existing risk  “equilibrium” is one which can be described as “metastable“, the result of widespread complacency, and which he compared to an avalanche where “a totally innocuous […]

The Cost Of Market Crash Insurance Just Hit A Record High

With the VIX surging, and then quickly getting pummeled on two occasions in the past three weeks, dizzy traders could be forgiven to assume that any latent “risk off” threat, whether from North Korea or the US political front, has been taken off the table. However, a deeper look inside the vol surface reveals something […]

“Why Does Extraordinarily Low Volatility Matter” Baupost Explains…

With elites increasingly sounding the alarm about the state of the stock market, and various market participants fearing the complacency is masking the fragility of the market's true character; it is no surprise that Baupost's recently named President and Head of Public Investments, Jim Mooney, has joined the chorus. While Mooney (and Klarman's) warning regarding […]

“The Swarm Effect”: Every Trader Today Has Just Two Choices

Few have dedicated as much time and effort into explaining the behavioral aspects of trading in a time of central planning (or “metastability“) as Deutsche Bank’s whimsical derivatives-philosopher, Aleksandar Kocic. Three weeks after becoming the first Wall Street strategist to quantify (and qualify) the concept of market “complacency“, and one week after explaining that the […]

Mark Cudmore: “The Marginal U.S. Stock Trader Will Be Selling Rather Than Buying This Week”

By Mark Cudmore, a former FX trader who writes for Bloomberg U.S. Equities Face a Tough Week as the Love Has Gone It’s going to be a long, tough week for U.S. equities. While there’s no need to overreact to the Trump administration’s very public failure to reform health care, the evidence suggests that the […]

1.4 Trillion Reasons Why Today’s ‘Quad Witch’ Could Matter

In 2015, options expirations mattered – stocks would tear higher into the event and like clockwork sink back lower after. 2016 was not so obvious but the all-important 'quad-witch' expirations still had some bias. However, if JPMorgan's equity derivative strategists are right, today's 'quad-witch'  – with $1.4 trillion worth of S&P 500 notional set to […]

Spot The Megamerger Leak, Kraft-Unilever Edition

As we detailed earlier, while the story was first leaked by the FT Alphaville blog, there was immediate speculation how widely this morning's megamerger was leaked first. Sure enough, volume of bullish Unilever options rallied in the past two days. As Bloomberg points out, on Unilever’s U.S. ticker, 10,909 calls traded on Feb. 15, the […]

Why February May Be An Ugly Month For Markets: Here Are BofA’s “Danger Signals”

With the S&P500 ending January on the back foot, more pain may be in store for markets in February. This is the observation of BofA’s chief technician Stephen Suttmeyer, who provides several danger signals why bulls may want to be particularly cautious ahead of the coming months. As he notes, the post-Presidential Election S&P 500 […]

Wall Street Analysts Are Slowly Losing It

Back in April, we commiserated with BBG ex-trader and commentator, Richard Breslow, who when looking at the ongoing events in markets, had a near nervous breakdown. For those who missed it, here are the key excerpts: Trading is a hard business. The world is becoming a more complicated place: a number out of China may […]